SAN FRANCISCO — California Democratic Party leaders are grappling with a growing fear: a crowded gubernatorial primary could pave the way for a Republican victory in November. At the party’s annual convention this weekend, anxieties were openly discussed, with calls for lagging Democratic candidates to withdraw from the race to consolidate support behind a single contender.
The state’s unique “jungle primary” system – in which all candidates, regardless of party affiliation, appear on the same ballot and the top two vote-getters advance to the general election – has raised the specter of two Republicans securing those coveted spots. Nine Democrats are vying to replace termed-out Governor Gavin Newsom, while only two prominent Republicans, Steve Hilton and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, are actively campaigning for the governorship. As ABC News reported February 5th, the crowded Democratic field increases the chances of a Republican breakthrough.
“California Democrats are prepared to do what’s required,” state party chairman Rusty Hicks told reporters Friday. “We are ready and willing and able to do what’s required … to ensure we have a strong candidate coming out of the primary to do what’s required in November.” Hicks acknowledged the financial realities of campaigning in the nation’s most populous state, with its expensive media markets, and the need for a viable candidate to amass significant resources.
While Hicks refrained from publicly naming specific candidates who should consider dropping out, several contenders are seen as lagging in the polls, including state Superintendent of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond, former state Controller Betty Yee, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former Assembly Majority Leader Ian Calderon. The pressure to consolidate comes despite the fact that registered Democrats vastly outnumber Republicans in California, and no Republican has held statewide office since 2006.
Recent polling data, averaged by Real Clear Politics, shows Hilton and Bianco tied for first place with 15.5% of the vote each. Representative Eric Swalwell of Dublin, California, currently leads the Democratic field with 12.5% support. This close contest has prompted comparisons to a 2012 congressional race in San Bernardino County, where a fractured Democratic field allowed a Republican to win despite a registration advantage for Democrats.
Former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco) dismissed the concerns Friday, asserting, “That’s not going to happen,” and emphasizing Democratic unity. But, the possibility of a two-Republican runoff has spurred a broader effort within the party to encourage candidates to reassess their campaigns.
Jodi Hicks, leader of Planned Parenthood’s California operations, expressed alarm at the potential consequences of a Republican victory, particularly given Newsom and legislative Democrats’ efforts to protect reproductive care funding. “A top-two Republican [race] would certainly have dire consequences for the midterm battle and to the governor’s office,” she said.
The California Federation of Labor Unions is set to begin its endorsement process Tuesday, and leader Lorena Gonzalez indicated that candid discussions about candidates’ viability are anticipated. “I think we are going to have some pretty honest discussions with candidates about their individual paths and where they are,” she said.
Within the convention, delegates expressed a range of opinions. Gregory Hutchins, an academic labor researcher from Riverside, suggested the convention served as a “test” to gauge candidates’ support. Others, like Tim Paulson, a San Francisco Democrat supporting Yee, criticized the pressure to withdraw as “preemptive disqualification.”
The calls for candidates to step aside have already begun. RL Miller, chair of the state Democratic Party’s environmental caucus, publicly urged Betty Yee to exit the race, arguing she was not maximizing her impact. Yee forcefully defended her decision to remain in the contest, stating, “The race is wide open,” and noting that a significant portion of voters remain undecided. She similarly revealed that Representative Swalwell had privately encouraged Ian Calderon to withdraw.
As the June primary approaches, the question of whether the Democratic field will consolidate remains unanswered. The party’s internal debate underscores the high stakes of the gubernatorial race and the potential for an unexpected outcome in a state long considered a Democratic stronghold.
