Voter confidence in the fairness of upcoming midterm elections has plummeted across the political spectrum, according to new research released Friday by the UC San Diego Center for Transparent and Trusted Elections. Just 60% of eligible voters surveyed between mid-December and mid-January expressed confidence that midterm votes will be accurately counted, a significant drop from the 77% who felt that way shortly after the 2024 presidential election.
The decline in trust comes as former President Trump and his allies continue to question ballot security, even as Democrats voice concerns about potential voter intimidation and federal intervention at polling places. The survey of 11,406 voters revealed a “parallel movement” in distrust, as described by Thad Kousser, co-director of the UC San Diego center. “Everyone – Democrats, Republicans, independents alike – have become less trusting of elections over the last year,” Kousser said.
The erosion of confidence is not limited to any one political group. Among Republicans, confidence in vote counting fell from 82% after the 2024 election to 65% in the recent survey. Democrats saw a decrease from 77% to 64%, and independents from 73% to 57%.
Concerns driving this decline differ by party affiliation. Half of Republicans cited distrust of mail ballots and the possibility of non-citizens voting, claims that have been repeatedly debunked by election officials. Nearly a quarter of Democrats expressed worry that eligible voters might be deterred from casting ballots due to fear or intimidation.
These fears are fueled by rhetoric from political leaders. Trump has repeatedly alleged widespread fraud in mail-in voting and questioned the citizenship of voters, while some Democrats have raised alarms about stricter voter ID laws and potential deployments of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents to polling locations. The FBI’s recent raid and seizure of ballots from Fulton County, Georgia – a location frequently targeted by Trump’s unsubstantiated claims of 2020 election fraud – has further heightened anxieties.
The UC San Diego research also highlighted bipartisan concerns about the fairness of congressional district maps. More than half of all voters – 51% of Democrats, 48% of independents, and 34% of Republicans – do not trust that congressional districts are drawn to accurately reflect voter preferences. While voters largely blamed the opposing party for gerrymandering, a significant portion – nearly a quarter of both Democrats and Republicans – also expressed dissatisfaction with their own party’s leadership on the issue. Several states have recently engaged in mid-decade redistricting efforts, with both Republican and Democratic parties seeking to gain a partisan advantage.
Perceptions of potential ICE presence at polling places also varied. 44% of Democrats, 34% of independents, and 30% of Republicans believe It’s likely that ICE agents will be present in their area. Half of Democrats said such a presence would decrease their confidence in accurate vote counting, while nearly half of Republicans (48%) said it would increase their confidence. Racial disparities were also evident, with Asian American and Hispanic voters expressing greater concern about intimidation and potential questioning by ICE agents.
Election experts emphasize the potential consequences of declining voter confidence. “We’re at this moment now where there are people on both sides who are questioning what the objective conditions will be of the election – whether people will be able to freely build it to the polls, what the vote counting mechanisms will be,” Kousser said. Lauren Prather, co-director of the UC San Diego center, warned that prolonged distrust could lead to decreased voter participation, particularly if voters believe their votes will not be fairly counted.
Voting rights advocates urge voters with concerns to verify their registration status, explore early voting options, and make a plan to vote with family or friends if they fear intimidation. Sean Morales-Doyle, director of the Voting Rights and Elections Program at the Brennan Center for Justice, stressed the importance of participation: “The No. 1 thing on my list is and always will be: Vote.”
Rick Hasen, an election law expert at UCLA Law, called for strengthening protections for fair elections, while Sophia Lin Lakin, director of the Voting Rights Project at the ACLU, emphasized the ongoing efforts of numerous individuals and organizations to ensure smooth and secure elections.
Mike Madrid, a Republican political consultant, characterized the erosion of trust as a deliberate strategy employed by Trump to deflect blame for election losses, facilitated by Republicans in Congress who have been unwilling to challenge his false claims. He also suggested that Democratic gerrymandering in states like California has contributed to the problem. Despite the loss of trust, Madrid anticipates high turnout in the midterms, driven by a sense of crisis among voters.
Trump, in a recent social media post, labeled Democrats “horrible, disingenuous CHEATERS” for opposing voter ID laws, and continues to call on his supporters to turn out in overwhelming numbers to prevent alleged election fraud. Senator Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) echoed this call for high turnout, stating that a massive voter turnout is the “best protection” against threats to the election.
