A sudden shift in weather patterns is bringing a return to winter conditions in Oberbayern, with forecasts predicting significant snowfall in the Alps and a potential for flooding in lower-lying areas. After a period of mild temperatures and rain, a cold front is moving into the region, prompting warnings from meteorologists.
Currently, rain dominates the lower elevations of Oberbayern, while snow is falling above 1200 to 1500 meters. However, as the weekend approaches, colder air masses will arrive, transforming the precipitation back into snow. Whether this snow will reach the valleys remains uncertain, described by forecasters as a “small gamble.”
Meteorologist Kai Zorn anticipates substantial snowfall in the Alpine regions. “Now it’s coming – the Alpine snow! There will probably be as much snow as there hasn’t been all winter so far: in the north and northwest facing slopes, easily 2 to 3 meters, locally even more can approach down,” Zorn stated. He as well cautioned about the potential for fluctuating conditions, with periods of snowfall alternating with milder temperatures and the risk of high water levels.
The potential for flooding is a growing concern as temperatures are expected to rise again next week, accompanied by continued rainfall. While the overall trend points towards wintery conditions, the possibility of a North Stau situation – where moist air is forced to rise over mountains, leading to heavy precipitation – could result in significant snow accumulation in the Alps. Simulations suggest potential snow depths of 20 to 80 centimeters around February 21st, though the accuracy of these predictions remains to be seen.
Some weather models predict up to 300 liters of precipitation per square meter across the region by the end of the month, with localized areas potentially receiving even more. If milder conditions prevail and snow remains confined to elevations above 1500 meters, the risk of flooding in parts of the region could increase significantly.
Looking ahead to the weekend, Saturday will begin with temperatures around 0 degrees Celsius in Altötting, Berchtesgadener Land, Mühldorf, Rosenheim, and Traunstein. Fog and low-lying clouds are expected to dissipate by midday, with occasional sunshine. However, a low-pressure system will move in during the afternoon, bringing rain that may turn to snow in the evening, creating potentially hazardous road conditions. Highs will range from 4 degrees Celsius in Berchtesgadener Land, Rosenheim, and Traunstein to 6 degrees Celsius in Altötting, before temperatures begin to fall.
Sunday will start with a wintery chill, with temperatures dropping to -6 degrees Celsius in Berchtesgadener Land, Mühldorf, and Rosenheim, and -5 degrees Celsius in Traunstein and Altötting. Further snow showers are expected, gradually diminishing into flurries. Sunshine is most likely in Traunstein. Highs will reach -1 degree Celsius in Rosenheim and Mühldorf, and around 0 degrees Celsius in Altötting, Traunstein, and Berchtesgadener Land.
Monday will bring more snow after overnight lows of -8 degrees Celsius in Berchtesgadener Land and -6 degrees Celsius in Altötting, Mühldorf, Rosenheim, and Traunstein. However, rain may mix with the snow at elevations below 500 to 600 meters. Highs will reach 2 degrees Celsius in Berchtesgadener Land, Rosenheim, and Traunstein, and 3 degrees Celsius in Altötting and Mühldorf.
Tuesday will begin with temperatures between -1 and 0 degrees Celsius, with persistent cloud cover and intermittent snow showers, which may turn to rain in Altötting and Mühldorf. Highs will be between 1 and 2 degrees Celsius.
The regional weather report is provided by “Wetterküche Bayern.”
Looking further ahead, Wednesday and Thursday will notice continued rain, with snow turning to rain at elevations below 800 meters. Temperatures are expected to rise to 11 degrees Celsius on Friday, significantly raising the snow line. There is a possibility of sunshine towards the new weekend, but another weather disturbance is anticipated, potentially bringing substantial snowfall. Whether this snow will reach lower regions remains uncertain, but some models suggest significant accumulations are possible. A continuation of these conditions could also lead to increased flood risk if warmer temperatures prevail.
