Standard Chartered Bank has lowered its 2026 price target for Bitcoin to $100,000, marking the second reduction in less than three months, as headwinds from exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows and a challenging macroeconomic environment continue to pressure the cryptocurrency market.
The revised forecast, down from a previous $150,000 estimate and significantly lower than an earlier projection of $300,000, anticipates a potential decline for Bitcoin toward $50,000 in the coming months, according to a report by Will Canny of CoinDesk, published February 12, 2026.
Analysts at the bank, led by Geoff Kendrick, head of digital assets research, cite the recent selloff and the behavior of ETF investors as key factors influencing the downward revision. Kendrick indicated that investors who have experienced losses are more inclined to reduce their exposure to Bitcoin rather than capitalize on potential dips, contributing to continued downward pressure.
The bank also adjusted its 2026 target for Ether, reducing it to $4,000 from $7,500, with a potential bottom near $1,400 before any recovery. This follows a period where Bitcoin has fallen more than 40% since peaking near $127,000 in October, and approximately $8 billion has flowed out of U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs.
Despite the market downturn, which has resulted in a nearly $2 trillion loss in total crypto market value, Standard Chartered maintains a long-term constructive outlook on the asset class, leaving its forecasts through 2030 unchanged. Kendrick noted the current selloff has been more orderly than previous cycles, with no major exchange or platform failures, suggesting a degree of maturation within the crypto market.
Standard Chartered launched a fully integrated digital assets trading service for institutional clients in July 2025, offering spot trading for Bitcoin and Ether through its UK branch, and plans to introduce non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) trading. The bank is the first global systemically important bank to offer deliverable spot cryptoasset trading to institutional clients, including corporations, investors, and asset managers.
The lowered price targets come as ETF holdings have decreased by roughly 100,000 BTC since October, leaving the average ETF investor with a cost basis of approximately $90,000, currently underwater. Kendrick anticipates further market capitulation in the near term, influenced by softening U.S. Economic data and potential delays in anticipated Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
