After a dreary December in California, the surf forecast is looking better as of late. Not just in the short term, but, if you believe the models, in many months to come.
No matter the time of year, whether in the midst of a swell bender or a flat spell, Mark Sponsler, the no-nonsense surf forecaster who runs Stormsurf.com, is constantly looking for “westerly anomalies” (a disruption of the predominant easterly tradewinds) in the western Pacific Ocean near Papua New Guinea. These weather shifts can (and historically have) serve as a bellwether months in advance of an El Niño winter, an entire ocean’s width away in North America.
With enough consistent anomalies over several months, the eastbound jetstream becomes supercharged, and warm water is pushed along the equator toward North America, setting up conditions that trigger El Niño and (hopefully) solid, consistent surf. Mark is never one to overhype, so it means something that he identified and highlighted a big blip on the anomaly radar this week. Not only does that likely mean a pulse of much-needed energy to California and Hawaii for January and February, but it could be the first sign of long-term change in the El Niño Southern Oscillation.
To focus on one part of Mark’s observation, consider this: “These sorts of events can kick off the development of El Niño, especially when they occur in the Jan-Feb time frame,” he writes. “Of course such an El Niño,if it were to develop,would not materialize till the fall and Winter of 2026/27. But,this is how they start. And this is what happened in Jan-March 2023,when copious precipitation (liquid and frozen) impacted California in the run-up to the eventual El Niño winter of ’23/24. again, this is just output from a model, and nothing has happened yet, but it is an encouraging sign of what might develop.”
NOAA
The national Oceanic and Atmospheric Governance says the Northern Hemi is currently in the La Niña phase, but there’s a high likelihood (75%) of switching to ENSO-neutral during January-March 2026, and staying there at least until late spring. After that, NOAA’s models suggest a surge in warm water by the summer and early fall, a clear shift into El Niño.
We’re not there yet, but as Mark put it, this is a promising sign.
