Petrobras shares tumbled over 2% in midday trading following the release of its 2026-2030 strategic Plan,disappointing investors who anticipated larger short-term capital expenditure (Capex) cuts adn the promise of exceptional dividends. The stock dip reflects market concern over the company’s optimistic projections for oil prices and exchange rates,despite assurances of sensitivity analyses outlining potential downside risks.
The market reaction centers on the plan’s Capex reductions, which were more heavily weighted towards the long term than initially expected. While the plan projects ordinary dividends between US$45 billion and US$50 billion, the absence of an extraordinary dividend-and indications it won’t materialize-fueled investor disappointment. JPMorgan analysts noted the market had already priced in roughly $1 billion in Capex cuts for 2026, but the most significant reductions are slated for future years.”Although it came generally within the market consensus, looking at the strategic plan in detail, the market also expected some short-term Capex cuts. So, for 2026, for example, the market already expected something close to 1 billion dollars in cuts. And the most relevant cuts came in the long term,” one analyst stated. “But the extraordinary dividend didn’t come and from all indications it won’t come.”
A key point of contention is Petrobras’ Brent oil price projection of US$70 per barrel for most years of the cycle, considered optimistic by JPMorgan and Genial Investments. Genial added that the plan’s favorable exchange rate assumptions also raise concerns about forecast accuracy.
Petrobras, however, offers transparency regarding potential risks, stating that a US$10 per barrel reduction in Brent would decrease annual operating cash flow by approximately US$5 billion. this sensitivity analysis aims to provide investors with tools to assess potential downside scenarios.
