College Football Playoff 2025: Bubble Teams Sharpen Focus as Championship Week Looms
IRVING, TX – The College Football Playoff picture is taking shape, but several teams remain on the bubble heading into conference championship weekend. This weekS projections reveal a tight race for the final spots, with potential for significant shifts based on upcoming results. The 12-team playoff format introduces new dynamics,placing increased importance on conference championships and strength of schedule.
Currently, Ohio State, Indiana, Texas A&M, and Georgia are projected to receive first-round byes. The first round of games, hosted on campus December 19 and 20, would feature matchups including Tulane at Texas Tech, Miami at Ole Miss, Alabama at Oregon, and Notre dame at Oklahoma.
Power Five Contenders
Notre Dame is in a strong position, needing a win against Stanford to solidify its place and await the outcomes of the SEC and Big 12 championship games. The Irish are currently projected as the No. 9 seed and would face no. 8 oklahoma in the first round.
Group of Five Race Heats Up
Tulane currently leads the Group of Five contenders, holding the No.12 seed and a projected first-round matchup against No. 5 Texas Tech. However, James Madison and North Texas remain in contention, despite schedule strength concerns. JMU’s schedule is ranked No. 123,while North Texas is No. 127. Tulane boasts a No. 73 ranked schedule,highlighted by wins against Duke and Northwestern,and a 37-13 victory over Temple.
Several scenarios could determine the Group of Five representative. Tulane can clinch a playoff berth with a win and being the highest-ranked American Athletic Conference team in the CFP ranking.North Texas would clinch with a win if Navy is not ranked ahead of Tulane and North Texas. Navy could clinch with a win AND a loss by either Tulane OR North Texas. East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, and South Florida remain in the mix. James Madison has already clinched the Sun Belt Conference championship game, facing either Southern Miss or Troy.
Projected Bracket (Based on this week’s projection):
First-round byes:
* No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
* no. 2 Indiana
* No. 3 Texas A&M (SEC champ)
* No. 4 Georgia
First-round games:
* No. 12 Tulane (American champ) at No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champ)
* No. 11 Miami (ACC champ) at No. 6 Ole miss
* No. 10 Alabama at No.7 Oregon
* No. 9 Notre Dame at no. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games:
* Tulane/Texas Tech winner vs. Georgia
* Miami/Ole Miss winner vs. Texas A&M
* Alabama/Oregon winner vs. Indiana
* Notre Dame/Oklahoma winner vs. Ohio State
