San Marino‘s Improbable Path to World Cup Qualification Hinges on a Loss
ROME – In an unprecedented turn of events, San marino, FIFA’s lowest-ranked national team, could qualify for the next stage of World Cup qualifying-but only if they lose their final match against Romania on November 18. The bizarre scenario stems from a complex set of results in Group I,coupled with FIFA’s qualification rules.
Currently, San Marino sits at the bottom of Group I with zero points. Though, a specific outcome in upcoming matches involving Northern Ireland, Slovakia, Romania, and Bosnia and Herzegovina could mathematically position San Marino for advancement despite a loss.
To trigger this unlikely situation, Northern Ireland must upset Slovakia, and Romania must upset Bosnia and Herzegovina. A parlay of those two results yields +1069 odds,according to ESPN BET lines. Should both upsets occur,Romania would be heavily favored in their match against San Marino,potentially to the point where sportsbooks may not even offer a money line for them.
“We would usually treat San Marino matches slightly differently given the disparity between them and most of the other teams,” said BetMGM’s Head of Trading, Steven Gibbs, in an email. “For a potential hypothetical situation like you described, the trading team will use market/bets they field as a guide to where prices should be with consideration to the possible higher goal scoring in the initial price.”
The possibility has already captured the attention of bettors. While large wagers overwhelmingly favor romania, Caesars Sportsbook’s head of soccer and UK sports, Mark Bickerdike, noted that “many bettors ‘love a big underdog story,’ so the book racked up solid liability on lots of smaller wagers at long odds.”
The situation raises ethical questions, as FIFA rules prohibit teams from intentionally losing matches. However, San Marino’s history in World Cup qualifying – including a recent 10-0 defeat to Austria on October 9 – makes proving intentionality difficult. Prior to that match, odds were 100-1 against Austria, while Cyprus were -600 to win.
Sportsbooks are closely monitoring the Bosnia-Romania game before releasing odds for the Romania-San Marino fixture. “It will be a unique scenario if it plays out,” Bickerdike said.
