Italy‘s Direct World Cup qualification Hangs in the Balance
Italy faces a challenging path to direct qualification for the 2026 world Cup, needing a near-perfect run of results and favorable outcomes from other matches. While playoff qualification is virtually assured with wins in remaining fixtures, direct entry remains a tough prospect, as Gianluigi Buffon acknowledged, stating, “At 90% we will do them.”
Currently, norway leads Group C with 15 points (in 5 games), followed by Italy and Israel, both with 9 points – Italy having played 4 matches to Israel’s 5. Italy has four games remaining: Estonia, Israel, Moldova, and Norway. Norway and Israel each have three.
To secure direct qualification, italy must win all four of their remaining matches, guaranteeing at least a playoff spot. However, they also need results to go their way, specifically hoping Norway stumble against Israel or Estonia before their crucial November 16th clash in San Siro.
The schedule is as follows: October 11th (Italy vs.Estonia, 8:45 PM CET), October 14th (Italy vs. Israel, Udine), November 13th (Italy vs. Moldova), and November 16th (Italy vs. Norway). Simultaneously on November 16th,Israel will play Moldova.
As of now, Norway boasts a meaningful goal difference advantage (+21) compared to Italy (+5), making it extremely difficult to overtake them on that tiebreaker. The 12 second-placed teams from qualifying groups, plus the four best nations League group winners who haven’t already qualified, will enter a playoff system consisting of four distinct paths with semi-finals and finals.
