Global Cancer Deaths Projected to Surge by 2050
Cancer remains teh second leading cause of death worldwide, trailing only cardiovascular disease, and its impact is expected to grow significantly in the coming decades. A new report from the Global Burden of Disease Research Program (GBD), published in The Lancet, reveals a concerning trend: despite advancements in treatment and preventative measures, cancer cases and deaths are on the rise globally.
Between 1990 and 2023, the number of new cancer diagnoses more than doubled, reaching 18.5 million in 2023. Tragically, deaths from cancer increased by 74% over the same period, totaling 10.4 million in 2023.
Looking ahead, the GBD projects a substantial increase in both diagnoses and fatalities. Without new, targeted interventions and increased funding, the number of cancer diagnoses is predicted to reach 30.5 million by 2050 – a 61% increase.even more alarming, the number of cancer-related deaths is forecast to climb to 18.6 million,representing a 75% rise.
Lisa Force, lead author of the study and a lecturer at the Institute for Measures and Evaluation of Health at the university of Washington, attributes these projected increases primarily to ”the aging of the population and population growth.” Though, she notes a positive trend: between 2015 and 2030, the probability of dying from cancer between the ages of 30 and 70 is expected to decrease by 6.5%.
The report also highlights stark disparities in cancer outcomes between countries. While cancer mortality rates have fallen by 33% in wealthier nations over the past thirty years,they have increased by 14% in the poorest countries,largely due to limited access to quality healthcare. This trend is expected to worsen, with projections indicating that over half of all new cancer cases and two-thirds of cancer deaths will occur in low- and middle-income countries within the next quarter-century.
