Highly Drafted Kickers Face Long Odds: Jake Moody‘s Release Highlights a Decades-Long Trend
The San Francisco 49ers’ recent decision to release kicker Jake Moody, a third-round draft pick, isn’t an isolated incident.It’s the latest example of a historical pattern: investing high draft capital in kickers frequently fails to yield returns. Moody’s release after just one season underscores a long-standing challenge for NFL teams – accurately predicting success at a position often dominated by players overlooked in the draft process.
The 49ers’ gamble on Moody, selected 99th overall in 2023, mirrors past attempts to find franchise kickers through the draft. Despite the specialized nature of the position, the data reveals a striking disparity in performance between drafted and undrafted kickers, raising questions about the value of using premium picks on specialists. This trend impacts team strategy,roster construction,and the financial resources allocated to a position frequently enough viewed as less critical than others.
A look at recent draft history reveals the difficulty of finding success. Since 2000,drafted kickers have converted 82.1 percent of their field goal attempts, while undrafted kickers have a slightly higher success rate of 83.3 percent.The numbers suggest that being drafted doesn’t guarantee success, and in manny cases, may not even improve a kicker’s performance.
Further illustrating this point, a review of kicker draft positions and relative player ratings (as of a recent assessment) shows a significant number of undrafted players achieving comparable or superior ratings to their drafted counterparts. The top 20 kickers, based on these ratings, include:
* Rank 1: 86.2 (Player Relative)
* Rank 2: 86.1 (Undrafted)
* Rank 3: 86.1 (Round 5)
* Rank 4: 86.0 (Team Relative)
* Rank 5: 85.8 (Undrafted)
* Rank 6: 85.8 (Player Relative)
* Rank 7: 85.6 (Team Relative)
* Rank 8: 85.6 (Player Relative)
* Rank 9: 85.5 (Player Relative – Round 5)
* Rank 10: 85.4 (player Relative – Undrafted)
* Rank 11: 85.4 (Team Relative)
* Rank 12: 85.3 (Player Relative)
* Rank 13: 85.3 (Team Relative)
* Rank 14: 85.2 (Player Relative)
* Rank 15: 85.2 (Team Relative)
* Rank 16: 85.1 (Player Relative)
* Rank 17: 85.0 (Team Relative)
* Rank 18: 84.9 (Player Relative)
* Rank 19: 84.8 (Team Relative)
* Rank 20: 84.7 (player Relative)
Players like Roberto Aguayo (drafted 59th overall in 2016 by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Sebastian Janikowski (drafted 17th overall in 2000 by the Oakland Raiders, though ultimately triumphant) represent the extremes of this gamble. Aguayo was quickly released after a disappointing rookie season, while Janikowski enjoyed a long career, but even his success doesn’t negate the overall risk. More recently, daniel Carlson, drafted in the fifth round, found success after being released by the Minnesota Vikings and joining the Las Vegas Raiders.
The 49ers’ general manager, John Lynch, acknowledged the difficulty of these decisions. “They are tough decisions, as (Moody) is a very talented young man and likely to go on elsewhere and have success,” Lynch said on KNBR radio. “And I hope that’s the case for him because he’s a great kid,and he handled it well. It’s tough, but you’ve got to make decisions in the best interest of the team.”
