French Prime minister Faces Likely Defeat in Confidence Vote, Sparking Political Uncertainty
PARIS – French Prime Minister Bayrou is facing almost certain defeat in a confidence vote scheduled for September 8th, triggered by his deeply unpopular austerity measures and debt-reduction plan. Opposition parties have signaled they will not support the proposed €44bn (£38bn) budget squeeze, raising the prospect of a goverment collapse and a significant political crisis for France.
Bayrou, a centrist and long-time ally of President Emmanuel Macron, has vowed to “fight like a dog” to secure support for the measures, which include scrapping two public holidays and freezing most welfare spending. He argues these steps are crucial to address France’s public debt, warning the country faces a “curse” if it fails to act.
Though, meetings this week with party leaders have yielded no breakthroughs. The Communists declared Bayrou’s survival impossible, with lawmaker Stéphane Peu stating, “This government is going to fall.” Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, described the situation as a “sinking ship” and confirmed her party would vote against the Prime Minister, stating Bayrou was “in denial, cut off and irresponsible.” Even the Socialist party indicated their meeting with Bayrou this week was merely a formality.
The deadlock in Parliament, stemming from inconclusive snap elections called by macron last June, is exacerbating the situation. The National Assembly is fractured, with no single group holding an absolute majority. A left-wing alliance secured the most seats,followed by Macron’s centrist grouping and the National Rally.
While Macron has stated he is not in favour of calling another snap election, the potential fallout from Bayrou’s expected fall remains uncertain. Macron could appoint a new Prime Minister, but they would likely face the same budgetary divisions. Yaël Braun-Pivet,leader of parliament and a key figure in Macron’s centrist grouping,suggested more dialog with opposition parties should have occurred over the summer and advocated for abandoning the proposal to scrap bank holidays. She also indicated that cross-party talks would be necessary to forge a consensus on a 2026 budget should the government fall.
