Summer Box Office Predictions: Smurfs, Horror, and A24

As summer 2025 approaches, analysts are closely watching the potential box office performance of several new releases. From legacy horror sequels to animated family films, here’s a look at what to expect in the coming weeks, as studios compete for audience attention.

“I Know What You Did Last Summer” Returns

Following the success of recent Scream films, Freddie Prinze Jr. and Jennifer Love Hewitt are set to revive the I Know What You Did Last Summer franchise. Sony hopes to attract both nostalgic fans and a new generation of viewers.

Sony’s decision to release this horror film during the summer contrasts with the Q1 launches of the Scream reboots. This strategy proved effective for Final Destination: Bloodlines earlier in the year. However, I Know What You Did Last Summer faces stiff competition from Superman and The Fantastic Four: First Steps.

Current forecasts place the film’s opening weekend between $10 million and $15 million. To compare, in 2023, horror films earned 1.47 billion U.S. dollars at the box office. (Statista 2023)

A24’s “Eddington” Anticipation

Ari Aster’s COVID-set film, Eddington, generated significant buzz at the Cannes Film Festival. However, early reactions suggest it may be closer in tone to Beau is Afraid than Aster’s mainstream horror hits like Hereditary and Midsommar. As such, its box office potential remains uncertain.

Forecasters estimate an opening weekend of $3 million to $5 million for Eddington. A24 has released several films widely in 2025, including Materialists, Warfare, and Bring Her Back.

“Smurfs” Reboot Eyes Family Audience

The new Smurfs film is struggling to gain traction in a crowded summer market. Its performance could be influenced by the performance of Elio, which had Pixar’s lowest wide debut to date. A slow start for Smurfs could benefit The Bad Guys 2, set for release in early August.

An opening in the $15 million to $20 million range would place Smurfs ahead of Paw Patrol: The Movie. Recent reboots of children’s properties include The Garfield Movie, Transformers One, and Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem.

Tracking Updates as of July 11

Here’s a snapshot of projected opening weekend box office numbers, as of July 11th: