Bitcoin Price Stagnates Amidst Conflicting Market Forces
Long-Term Holders Sell While Institutional Demand Surges
Bitcoin’s price has plateaued around $100,000 to $110,000 despite significant inflows from exchange-traded funds and substantial treasury investments. This has puzzled crypto enthusiasts, leading to speculation about the factors influencing Bitcoin’s current market behavior.
Long-Term Holders’ Selling Pressure
The muted price action might be due to long-term Bitcoin holders selling off their holdings. Charles Edwards, the founder of macro hedge fund Capriole Investment, highlighted that long-term holders, or Bitcoin OGs, have been offloading their positions. Some analysts suggest that over-the-counter desks are facilitating large buys.
It’s because Bitcoin OGs (long term holders) have been dumping on Wall St since the ETF launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio)
June 24, 2025
“It’s because Bitcoin OGs (long-term holders) have been dumping on Wall St since the ETF launch in January 2024, unloading their positions.”
—Charles Edwards, Founder of Capriole Investment
Amidst this, data indicates that the number of whales holding over 1,000 BTC declined in late May. This coincides with the $111,000 peak in May, indicating whale pressure on price. The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies is currently around $2.5 trillion (CoinMarketCap, June 2025).
The Role of Institutional Investment
Demand has surged, with nearly $11 billion flowing into ETFs in Q2. Firms like Metaplanet and Twenty One Capital have also announced substantial Bitcoin purchases. In the last week of June alone, ETFs purchased 20.7K BTC, or about 12.6% of the yearly new Bitcoin supply. However, the price has not seen a corresponding increase.
TXMC Trades noted that the transactions done through OTC desks often do not reflect on traditional order books, which may limit the impact on price. Willy Woo added that whales holding substantial amounts of Bitcoin, which they bought years ago, have been selling since 2017.
Future Projections
Despite the current price stagnation, Chamath Palihapitiya, a venture capitalist, projects that Bitcoin could surge to $500,000 by October, based on a historical post-halving rally pattern. However, retail interest dipped by 10% at this time, potentially limiting the possibility of a BTC breakout.
