Bitcoin’s Summer Outlook: Cautious, Yet Bullish Bets Prevail
Bitcoin’s recent surge past $108,200 has sparked debate. While short-term gains impress, experts warn of potential summer lulls. However, traders are heavily wagering on a new all-time high before October, creating a complex market outlook.
Market Sentiment and Mid-Term Outlook
Following a ceasefire deal, Bitcoin [BTC] experienced a rally, climbing nearly 10%. Despite this, the market anticipates caution in the mid-term, according to an analysis of the Options market by Glassnode. The Options market sentiment indicator, the 25 Delta Skew, signaled bearish sentiment.
The analytics firm noted negative skew for 3- and 6-month tenors, which indicates a premium for puts (bearish bets) over calls (bullish bets) through the end of Q3 and December 2025.
“3m and 6m (skew) remain negative (-2.6%, -4.3%). Combined with a put-heavy volume profile, this points to reduced short-term panic, but lingering medium-term caution.”
— Glassnode
Summer Seasonality and Contrasting Predictions
Historically, the summer months have been a challenging period for Bitcoin. CoinGlass data shows that Q3 has been the worst-performing quarter. However, July has often been an exception with modest gains.
Despite this seasonal trend, Polymarket bettors predict a new all-time high (ATH) before October, with an 85% probability. In essence, the market anticipates a rise above $112,000 in Q3. Analyst Stockmoney Lizards also expressed this view, forecasting a jump to $115,000 by August. Bitcoin’s value has increased over 50% since the beginning of 2024, demonstrating substantial growth (CoinTelegraph 2024).
Analyst Views
The market’s outlook appears divided, with some anticipating summer stagnation. In contrast, others predict substantial gains, indicating a potential push to surpass the $112,000 mark. The differing views create an environment where cautious optimism is essential.
Ultimately, the next few months will reveal which of these contrasting predictions holds true. The interplay of historical patterns and trader expectations will determine Bitcoin’s trajectory.
