Saquon Barkley’s Dynasty Dilemma: Is It time to Trade the Eagles Star?
Saquon Barkley is riding high after a stellar rushing season, capped with a Super Bowl ring, and poised for another year behind a formidable offensive line. Despite his recent dominance, whispers of future uncertainty surround the Philadelphia Eagles running back, who ranked as fantasy’s second-highest scorer (PPR) at his position in 2024. The primary concern? The potential for an abrupt end to his career.
The Retirement Question
during a recent episode of “Green Light with Chris Long,” Barkley was directly asked about his retirement plans: would he leave at his peak or play until the wheels fall off?
That’s a great question. I’ll probably be one of those guys that it would be out of nowhere. I would probably just wake up one day,whether it’s next year or two years or four years,and just be like,’Yeah,it’s over.’
Saquon Barkley, “Green light with Chris Long”
This sentiment echoes his admiration for another legendary running back known for a sudden departure.
One of my favorite players of all time, probably my favorite player of all time, is Barry Sanders, so probably similar to that. Maybe one day it will be out of nowhere. I’ll probably be ballin’ and just be like, ‘Yeah,’ and call it quits.
Saquon Barkley, “Green Light with Chris Long”
this comparison to Barry Sanders, coupled with concerns about his workload, raises critical questions for fantasy managers, particularly those in dynasty leagues: What is Saquon Barkley’s future value?
Did You Know?
Barry Sanders retired unexpectedly in 1999 at the age of 30, after 10 seasons with the Detroit Lions, and just shy of breaking the all-time rushing record. His sudden departure shocked the NFL world.
Workload Concerns and Past Precedent
Even managers in redraft leagues should consider the implications of Barkley’s heavy workload in 2024, where he surpassed 400 carries across the regular season and playoffs. this raises concerns about potential wear and tear.
Earlier this week, Jim ayello of The Athletic argued that Barkley’s 2024 usage suggests he shouldn’t be a first-round pick in 2025 fantasy drafts. Barkley amassed 482 touches in 2024, placing him in a concerning historical context.
Of the 11 other running backs since 2000 who exceeded 400 carries in a single season, none finished better than RB15 the following year. This list includes notable names like Derrick Henry, Jamal Lewis, and Shaun alexander.
Pro Tip
When evaluating running backs with high-carry seasons,consider their age,injury history,and the overall strength of their offensive line. these factors can considerably impact their performance in subsequent seasons.
Dynasty League Implications
While workload concerns impact redraft and keeper leagues, they are even more critical for dynasty formats. Dynasty managers should consider exploring trade options before the 2025 season.
On March 7, the Eagles extended Barkley’s contract for two years with $36 million in guaranteed money. While it’s unlikely Barkley would voluntarily walk away from this deal, history suggests a potential decline in 2025. With a contract option in 2026 and significant dead money implications,now might potentially be the optimal time for dynasty managers to consider trading Barkley before his value diminishes.
Barkley is currently 28 years old and will be 29 heading into the 2026-27 season. In 2024, he finished as RB2 (PPR, RB1 in Half PPR) with 355.3 points on 345 carries for 2,005 yards and 33 receptions for 278 yards during the regular season. Since 2014, only four running backs aged 28 or older have surpassed 300 PPR points. Derrick Henry achieved this feat last season at age 30, scoring 336.4 points. Only 24 in that age group finished with over 200 PPR points in the past 10 seasons. While Barkley’s talent makes it reasonable to expect him to exceed 200 points, or even approach 300, it would still place him in a small minority among formerly elite running backs.
Fantasy Analyst Outlook
following Barkley’s comments, Jake Ciely, a senior fantasy writer for The Athletic, adjusted his dynasty rankings, dropping Barkley from No. 12 to No. 27 overall. His RB ranking shifted from RB4 to RB6.
Dynasty analyst Jeff Haverlack offers a clear strategy:
The case for Barkley is simple. If you are competing, you’re either holding or buying. If you are rebuilding, or soon will be, it’s time to distribute him.In the case of the latter, the last thing you want to do is hold the asset, raise your team to mediocre status, and, thus, lose draft capital. Be the best or be the worst, don’t be mediocre. For reference, his trade value is currently a very high first-round rookie selection, in the neighborhood of 1.02.
Jeff Haverlack, Dynasty Analyst
Potential trade targets for dynasty managers seeking long-term running back solutions include De’Von Achane (no. 4 RB) or Bucky Irving (No. 5 RB). Alternatively, wide receivers like Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are viable options, all currently ranked higher than Barkley in Ciely’s dynasty rankings.
Managers might also consider acquiring Marvin Harrison Jr.,anticipating a long and productive career as a WR1,potentially paired with a flier like Jonathon Brooks for long-term gains.
Savvy managers or win-now teams can capitalize on potential panic by acquiring Barkley at a discounted rate if a current owner is willing to trade him for less than his perceived value.
