2026 Polls: Why Opposition Unity Failed and Museveni Gains Ground
the Ugandan opposition’s attempts to present a united front against President Yoweri Museveni ahead of the 2026 presidential elections have faltered, leaving the incumbent seemingly unconcerned as campaigns begin. Initial hopes for a consolidated challenge have been undermined by internal divisions and the emergence of multiple candidates, especially within key opposition strongholds.
Efforts to forge a single opposition candidate were spearheaded by the People’s Front for Freedom (PFF), unofficially led by incarcerated opposition figure Col.Warren Kizza Besigye, with much of its leadership originating from Buganda, a traditional stronghold of the National Unity Platform (NUP) and its leader, Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine. These discussions, led by PFF members Erias Lukwago and Ssemujju Nganda, ultimately collapsed.
The “Katonga group,” a faction within the opposition, reportedly favored a unity effort led by Gregory Muntu Mugisha, while NUP remained steadfast in its support for Bobi wine. This impasse resulted in the Katonga group backing Muntu and NUP proceeding with Wine as its sole candidate, effectively denying Kyagulanyi the potential to consolidate opposition votes in Buganda and leverage Besigye’s influence outside the central region.
the situation in Buganda is further intricate by the presence of four presidential candidates competing for votes: Robert Kyagulanyi,Robert Kasibante,Mubarak Munyagwa,and Elton joseph Mabirizi. This fragmentation is expected to significantly erode NUP’s previously strong support base in the region, posing a challenge for Habibu Buwembo, tasked with mobilizing support for the NUP.
Adding to the opposition’s difficulties, the amicable relationship between the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) and the Democratic Party (DP) is anticipated to draw support away from opposition candidates, particularly in Buganda, where DP maintains a considerable following.
In Masaka,another area where Bobi Wine has enjoyed strong support,a rift between Leader of Opposition Mathias Mpuuga and Bobi Wine has created internal divisions. Mpuuga’s formation of the Democratic Front (DF) and his refusal to endorse either Wine or any other opposition party for 2026 further weakens the opposition’s position, creating an opening for the NRM.
Similar challenges are emerging in busoga,the only subregion outside Buganda where NUP’s presidential candidate previously posed a significant threat to Museveni. Suspicion and internal disagreements have led to key defections, including Moses Bigirwa, a prominent NUP figure, who has joined Mubarak Munyagwa’s Common Man’s Party (CMP), taking with him John Front Ngalula, a district coordinator and youth leader. These departures have fueled perceptions that NUP is a ”Baganda affair,” making it harder to retain support among the Basoga people.
As the official campaign period begins on September 29th, the focus will be on whether the fractured opposition can overcome these challenges and mount a credible challenge to President Museveni, who appears well-organized and confident in his prospects for extending his four-decade rule.
Source: https://www.watchdoguganda.com/news/20250927/184585
