Islamabad, Pakistan – The United States’ top intelligence official has warned that Pakistan’s advancing missile capabilities could eventually place US territory within reach, placing the country alongside Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran as a significant nuclear threat. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard presented the assessment to the Senate Intelligence Committee on Wednesday, stating that these five nations were “researching and developing an array of novel, advanced or traditional missile delivery systems with nuclear and conventional payloads, that put our homeland within range.”
Gabbard specifically told lawmakers that “Pakistan’s long-range ballistic missile development potentially could include ICBMs with the range capable of striking the homeland.” The 2026 Annual Threat Assessment further detailed that Pakistan “continues to develop increasingly sophisticated missile technology that provides its military the means to develop missile systems with the capability to strike targets beyond South Asia, and if these trends continue, Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) that would threaten the US.”
The assessment also categorized Pakistan among countries that “probably continue to research, develop, and field delivery systems that will increase their ranges and accuracy, challenge US missile defenses, and provide new WMD-employ options,” alongside China, North Korea, and Russia. South Asia was identified as a region of “enduring security challenges,” with India-Pakistan relations remaining a risk for nuclear conflict. The report cited the 2025 Pahalgam attack in Indian-administered Kashmir as an example of potential crisis triggers, while acknowledging that “President Trump’s intervention de-escalated the most recent nuclear tensions.”
The intelligence community projects that threats to the US homeland could expand from more than 3,000 missiles currently to at least 16,000 by 2035. This projection echoes concerns previously voiced by President Donald Trump regarding emerging nuclear threats, according to reports from CNBCTV18.
Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs swiftly rejected Gabbard’s assessment. Spokesman Tahir Andrabi stated that Pakistan “categorically rejects the recent assertion by a United States official alleging a potential threat from Pakistan’s missile capabilities.” He affirmed that Pakistan’s strategic capabilities are “exclusively defensive” in nature, aimed at “safeguarding national sovereignty and maintaining peace and stability in South Asia.”
Andrabi further argued that Pakistan’s missile program, which he stated remains below intercontinental range, is based on a doctrine of “credible minimum deterrence vis-a-vis India.” He contrasted this with India’s development of missile capabilities exceeding 12,000 kilometers, which he characterized as extending beyond regional security considerations. He called for a “more measured and considered approach that aligns with South Asia’s strategic imperatives and advances peace, security and stability across the region.”
Former army brigadier and arms control specialist Tughral Yamin noted that Gabbard’s concerns were not unprecedented. “Similar remarks have been made in the past,” he said. “Officially, Pakistan has countered such rhetoric by pointing out that Pakistani deterrence – both conventional and nuclear – is meant against India. Even with India, Pakistan seeks peace at honourable terms and not because US chose to identify Pakistan is a threat.”
While Gabbard’s remarks focused on the future potential of Pakistan’s missile program, experts question the immediate logic of the US intelligence assessment. Pakistan’s longest-range operational missile, the Shaheen-III, has an estimated range of roughly 2,750km, sufficient to cover all of India. An ICBM is generally defined as having a range exceeding 5,500km, a capability Pakistan currently lacks. The distance between Pakistan and the US exceeds 11,200km, a range only achievable by Russia, the US, France, China, and the United Kingdom with existing ICBMs, with India and North Korea developing such capabilities.
US officials, speaking anonymously to the Arms Control Association in January 2025, assessed that Pakistan’s ability to field long-range ballistic missiles was “several years to a decade away.” Gabbard’s testimony suggests this assessment has not significantly changed. However, the US has been closely monitoring Pakistan’s missile program, sanctioning Pakistan’s National Development Complex and three private companies in December 2024 for alleged procurement of equipment for long-range missile development.
Pakistan has previously described US sanctions as “biased and politically motivated,” accusing Washington of relying on “mere suspicion” and invoking “broad, catch-all provisions” without sufficient evidence. Former Pakistani ambassador to Washington, Jalil Abbas Jilani, rejected Gabbard’s remarks on X, stating that Pakistan’s nuclear doctrine is India-specific and not aimed at projecting power globally.
Former Pakistani high commissioner to India, Abdul Basit, also criticized the comparison, stating that Pakistan’s nuclear program has always been India-specific and that Gabbard’s assertions betray “incorrigible biases.”
The assessment comes at a complex moment in US-Pakistan relations, following a diplomatic reset driven in part by the May 2025 India-Pakistan conflict. President Trump has repeatedly cited his administration’s role in brokering the ceasefire, and Pakistan nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize. Relations warmed further with visits from Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, including a private White House lunch with Trump and subsequent meetings with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Trump has publicly praised Munir, describing him as “my favourite field marshal.” Pakistan’s strategic relevance has also extended to the Middle East, with its ties to Gulf states and Tehran making it a useful interlocutor during the ongoing conflict in Gaza and US-Israeli strikes on Iran. In September, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a mutual defence agreement.
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