A Stark Warning from Ukraine: the Need for Australian Self-Reliance
Recent events have instilled a sense of fatalism in Kyiv, highlighting a risky shift in the global security landscape and a critical need for Australia to reassess its strategic posture. The situation underscores that unwavering reliance on even the closest allies is no longer a guarantee.
Russia is rapidly expanding its military capabilities, as announced in its latest State Rearmament Program. Bolstered by meaningful assistance from China, Russia’s defense industrial capacity is growing dramatically. Ukrainian intelligence officials briefed this author this week, revealing Russia is currently expending over 125,000 first-person view drones per month and maintaining a sustainable replacement rate.Annual Shahed drone production currently stands at 35,000, projected to reach 40,000 by 2030. Furthermore, Russia is actively forming dozens of new divisions, with a stated goal of achieving readiness for potential conflict with NATO by 2030.
The implications of this build-up are particularly acute given the evolving political climate in the United States.One Kyiv resident described Donald Trump as a “flag, which flutters whichever way Zelenskyy or Putin blow the wind,” reflecting a growing frustration with perceptions that Trump underestimates russia’s aggressive intent. There is a deep concern that Washington has failed to fully grasp the nature of Russia’s culture, Putin’s ruthlessness, and the russian public’s prioritization of global power over Western-style social comforts.
while Ukraine demonstrates remarkable resilience in the face of these challenges, the experience offers crucial lessons for allies like Australia. Despite maintaining a close security and economic relationship with the United States, Australia can no longer take that commitment for granted. A presidential commitment today could be abandoned tomorrow.
This necessitates a more sovereign and self-reliant approach, supported by increased national security funding – as previously advocated by the lowy Institute – to allow Australia to hedge against potential shifts in US security policy. Consequently, the assumptions underpinning the forthcoming 2026 National Defence Strategy will likely differ significantly from those of the 2024 document.
Ukraine has been at the forefront of learning about modern warfare over the past three years, offering valuable insights. Though, perhaps the most critical lesson for Australia lies in understanding the evolving dynamics of America’s global security posture and how US presidents may engage with their friends and allies. The situation demands a proactive and independent approach to national security, ensuring Australia is prepared to navigate an increasingly uncertain world.
(Image caption retained as per original text): Workers clear debris following a drone attack on a residential building that injured at least nine people on 10 October 2025 in Kyiv, Ukraine (Paula Bronstein /Getty Images)
