China’s Dual Strategy Towards Germany and the EU: A Summary
This article analyzes China’s strategic approach to navigating economic and political tensions with Germany and the European Union. The core argument is that China employs a “twin-track” strategy: courting Germany while simultaneously pushing back against the EU as a whole.
key Points:
Germany as a Key Target: China recognizes Germany’s economic importance and symbolic value within the EU. it actively seeks to maintain good relations with Berlin through high-level access, business engagement, and positive messaging (like emphasizing “not decoupling”).
EU as the Obstacle: China views the EU,particularly its growing toolkit of economic security measures (like the Foreign Subsidies Regulation (FSR) and Anti-coercion instrument (ACI)),as the primary challenge to its interests.
Wedge Strategy: China attempts to exploit perceived differences between Germany and the EU, aiming to secure favorable outcomes with Berlin while resisting EU-level policies. This strategy relies on keeping German political signaling separate from EU enforcement.
Evolving Dynamics: The effectiveness of this wedge strategy is diminishing as EU instruments become more established and Germany’s security consensus strengthens.
Future Trajectories: The author outlines three possible scenarios:
Managed estrangement (Baseline): Continued EU trade defenses and chinese countermeasures,with maintained courtesies towards Germany.
Partial Stabilization: Possible through technical talks (e.g., on EV pricing) and Beijing offering market access concessions. Climate cooperation remains a stable area.
Shock Escalation: Triggered by a security crisis or espionage revelation, leading to harsher reprisals against German companies.
Recommendations for Europe: The article advocates for a “unity with nuance” approach:
EU coordination: Pairing bilateral engagement with germany with prior EU coordination and a consistent message about “de-risking.”
Targeted Defenses: Utilizing precise, WTO-consistent trade defenses and diversifying supply chains.
Security & Counter-Coercion: Holding firm on security measures and operationalizing the ACI,while clearly communicating sensitive sectors to China.
in essence, the article argues that China is attempting to divide and conquer, leveraging its relationship with Germany to mitigate the impact of EU policies aimed at addressing economic security concerns. The future relationship hinges on whether Europe can maintain unity and nuance, and whether China moderates its retaliatory actions.
Author: Stefan Messingschlager, historian and political scientist at Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg, specializing in Sino-Western relations.
Source: abridged from an article originally published by China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE) on September 9, 2025.
