South African Agriculture: Uneven Prospects Heading into 2026
South Africa’s agricultural sector is poised for another year of mixed performance, with a likely continuation of the trends seen in 2025 into 2026. While certain subsectors are thriving, others face notable challenges.
Positive factors include a promising weather forecast, increased planting intentions for summer grains and oilseeds, and strong sentiment within the horticulture industry. Following a 30% increase in summer grain and oilseed production too 20 million tonnes in the 2024/25 season – a rebound from the previous year’s drought - ample harvests are anticipated, bolstering the overall farming economy. Robust harvests were also reported for fruits, wine grapes, and vegetables.
Though, this positive outlook isn’t worldwide. The livestock industry, representing nearly half of South Africa’s agricultural economy, continues to struggle. While easing grain prices offer some relief from high feed costs,the ongoing spread of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) remains a critical concern,hindering access to key export markets and impacting financial stability.
Despite collaborative efforts between the government and private sector focused on vaccination and surveillance, FMD persists. A key long-term challenge is south Africa’s limited capacity for vaccine production. The weakening of institutions like the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP) and the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) needs urgent attention, and while discussions are underway, concrete progress has been slow.
Expanding private sector involvement in both planning and manufacturing of animal vaccines is crucial.the Department of Agriculture should prioritize identifying potential partnerships to ensure a reliable vaccine supply, not just for FMD but for other diseases as well. The increasing frequency of animal disease outbreaks threatens South Africa’s ambition to become a major livestock exporter and poses reputational risks to related industries,such as the wool industry,which faced temporary export restrictions to China due to FMD concerns in cattle.
South Africa’s agricultural landscape heading into 2026 is likely to be characterized by uneven growth. While horticulture and field crops are expected to benefit from favorable conditions and resilient export demand,the livestock industry will likely remain constrained by ongoing disease challenges.
– Wandile Sihlobo,Chief Economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a Senior Fellow at Stellenbosch university.
