TSU vs. Iowa State: NCAA Tournament Picks & Predictions 2026 | SportsLine Model

ST. LOUIS – The Iowa State Cyclones, a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament, will face the Tennessee State Tigers, a No. 15 seed, in the opening round Friday afternoon at the Enterprise Center. Tipoff is scheduled for 1:50 p.m. CT.

Iowa State (27-7) enters the tournament after falling to Arizona 82-80 in the semifinals of the Considerable 12 Conference Tournament. The Cyclones, led by coach T.J. Otzelberger, are making their 25th appearance in the NCAA Tournament and have been ranked in the Associated Press Top 25 for 51 consecutive weeks. This marks Otzelberger’s fifth consecutive tournament bid, a program first for an Iowa State coach.

Tennessee State (30-2), champions of the Ohio Valley Conference, secured their tournament berth by defeating Morehead State 93-67 in the OVC Tournament championship game. This is the Tigers’ third NCAA Tournament appearance and their first since 1994, ending a 32-year drought. First-year coach Nolan Smith led Tennessee State to both the regular season and conference tournament titles.

BetMGM Sportsbook lists Iowa State as a 24.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 148.5 points. The SportsLine Projection Model forecasts the total to exceed 148.5 points, predicting a combined score of 154, with the Over hitting in 66% of simulations.

The model projects Iowa State’s Joshua Jefferson to lead all scorers with 20.1 points, while Travis Harper II is expected to score 14.1 points for Tennessee State. The model anticipates four Cyclones scoring at least 10.4 points, and three Tigers reaching double figures.

Iowa State averages 9.0 made three-pointers per game, 2.1 more than Tennessee State allows. The Tigers average 10.9 offensive rebounds per game, led by Jalen Pitre with 3.0 per game. Tennessee State shoots at a 46.0% clip from the field, while opponents shoot 42.6% against Iowa State.

Milan Momcilovic leads the Cyclones in scoring, averaging 17.1 points per game. Aaron Nkrumah paces the Tigers with averages of 17.5 points, 5.5 rebounds, and 2.8 steals per game.

The winner of Friday’s matchup will advance to the next round of the NCAA Tournament.

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