Tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Could Become Tropical Storm Melissa This Week
MIAMI – A developing area of low pressure in the central Caribbean sea has a high chance of becoming Tropical Storm Melissa this week, potentially impacting Hispaniola, Central america, and possibly the Bahamas and the United States later next week. The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring the system, which is currently exhibiting signs of organization and favorable conditions for growth.
The disturbance, located several hundred miles southeast of Jamaica, is forecast to move generally westward over the warm waters of the Caribbean. Ocean heat content – areas of warm, deep water – is a key ingredient in fueling tropical cyclone development and activity, and current conditions are supportive. forecasters are outlining three potential scenarios for the system’s track, ranging from a swift northward turn to a westward path into Central America, or a later northward curve that could bring impacts to the U.S.
Currently, there are three possible outcomes: the system could develop and curl northward over Hispaniola before moving northeastward out to sea; it may continue tracking westward into Central America; or it could take a later northward curve early-mid next week, potentially impacting Cuba, the Bahamas, and the U.S. later next week.It is too early to determine which scenario will unfold, and the situation is expected to evolve over the coming days.
Weather.com will continue to provide updates as the system develops. Caitlin Kaiser,a digital meteorologist with weather.com, graduated from the Georgia Institute of Technology with degrees in Earth and Atmospheric Sciences.
