Strait of Hormuz: Global Trade & Geopolitical Risks 2026

The German shipping company Hapag-Lloyd has begun applying a “war risk surcharge” of $1,500 per standard container and $3,500 per refrigerated or specialized container, effective immediately, as a result of escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. The move, announced on March 2, 2026, reflects a growing consensus within the maritime industry that the critical waterway is increasingly hazardous to navigation.

The surcharges come as several major shipping lines, including Maersk, have suspended all transits through the Strait of Hormuz and are diverting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding significant time and cost to voyages between Asia and Europe. This decision follows threats by Houthi rebels in Yemen to attack commercial shipping in the region, following the commencement of U.S. And Israeli military actions against Iran. The rerouting of ships is expected to exacerbate existing constraints on transport capacity and drive up freight rates.

The Strait of Hormuz, just 50 kilometers wide at its narrowest point – and as little as 33 kilometers with navigable passages only three kilometers wide – is a vital chokepoint for global oil supplies. The closure, or even significant disruption, of the Strait has far-reaching implications for the world economy. According to industry analysts, the increased shipping distances and insurance costs will inevitably translate into higher energy prices.

Adding to the concerns, multiple large shipping insurers – including Gard, Skuld, NorthStandard, London P&I Club, and American Club – announced on Thursday that they would withdraw coverage for war risks in the region, encompassing Iranian waters, the Persian Gulf, and adjacent sea areas. This decision further complicates the situation for ship owners and operators, increasing their financial exposure and potentially limiting their ability to secure insurance for voyages through the area.

Moritz Brake, a Senior Fellow at the University of Bonn’s Center for Advanced Security, Strategic and Integration Studies, and a former officer in the German Navy, warned that the risks in the Strait of Hormuz are “clear and grave.” Brake emphasized that the ultimate responsibility for safe passage rests with ship captains, who must weigh the potential dangers to their crews and the environment. “The responsibility…to drive a tanker through this war zone cannot be taken by any American president at this time,” he stated on March 12, 2026.

Brake also highlighted the threat posed by naval mines, noting their ease of deployment and the difficulty of removing them. He explained that mines can be triggered by simple contact, posing a significant hazard to shipping.

The situation is further complicated by reports that the U.S. President Donald Trump has requested assistance from NATO allies to protect oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The request, made in the wake of the Iranian response to U.S. And Israeli military actions, underscores the growing international concern over the security of this critical waterway. As of March 20, 2026, NATO has not formally responded to the request.

The First Group Bank AG reported on March 20, 2026, that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is already driving up energy prices. The German publication Die Zeit noted on March 16, 2026, that Iran is employing asymmetric warfare tactics in response to the attacks, leveraging its control over the Strait of Hormuz as a means of exerting pressure.

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