Severe Tropical Cyclone Narelle is intensifying off the coast of Far North Queensland, Australia, currently classified as a Category 5 system with sustained winds near 205 kilometers per hour and gusts up to 285 kilometers per hour. The cyclone, located approximately 350 kilometers northeast of Cooktown, is predicted to cross the coast between Lockhart River and Cape Melville on Friday morning, though it is expected to weaken slightly to a Category 4 before landfall.
The Bureau of Meteorology warns that the approaching cyclone is unusual in its predictable westward track, a departure from the typically erratic behavior of cyclones forming in the Coral Sea. This predictability is attributed to a persistent, deep subtropical ridge of high pressure over eastern Australia and the Coral Sea, acting as a steering mechanism for the storm.
Authorities are bracing for significant impacts, including dangerous ocean flooding due to unusually high tides in Princess Charlotte Bay. Residents are being warned of a potential storm tide as the cyclone’s center makes landfall. The small inland town of Coen lies directly in the cyclone’s projected path.
Narelle’s compact nature – with hurricane-force winds extending only 50 kilometers from its center – means that whereas the area of destructive winds is relatively small, the intensity within that zone is exceptionally high. This characteristic, similar to that of Cyclone Tracy which devastated Darwin in 1974, raises concerns about localized but severe damage.
Following its passage over Cape York, Narelle is forecast to weaken to a Category 2 system before re-emerging over the warm waters of the Gulf of Carpentaria early Saturday morning. This is expected to trigger re-intensification as the cyclone heads towards the eastern Northern Territory. While the cyclone is expected to cross the Northern Territory as a deep tropical low, it is anticipated to re-intensify off the Kimberley coast next week before moving into the Indian Ocean.
Despite the rapid movement of the cyclone, which is currently traveling at 26 kilometers per hour, river rises are still forecast as the storm moves inland. Sea surface temperatures in the northwest Coral Sea, currently 0.5–1.0°C above average, have contributed to the cyclone’s rapid intensification.
The current situation evokes memories of Cyclone Mahina, which struck the same general area in 1899 and remains the deadliest tropical cyclone in Australian recorded history. More recently, Severe Tropical Cyclone Larry, which hit Innisfail in 2006, also followed a predictable westward track and caused significant damage, including widespread destruction of Australia’s banana crop.
Residents in Far North Queensland are preparing for winds up to 260 kilometers per hour, with some seeking shelter in boats, shipping containers, and even a World War II bunker, according to reports from the region. Damage has already been reported, including a tree falling onto a home near Cooktown’s waterfront.
The ABC Emergency website and radio broadcasts are providing regular updates and warnings to residents, with frequencies available for local stations in Cairns, Coen, Cooktown, Lakeland, Laura, Mossman, and Weipa.
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