A tight race is developing for the title of world’s largest wheat importer, with both Egypt and Indonesia projected to purchase approximately 13 million tonnes of the grain in the 2025/2026 marketing year, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
The competition between the two nations underscores their growing influence in the global grain trade, potentially accounting for nearly 12% of total wheat imports. This demand will be closely watched by major exporting countries including Russia, the European Union, Australia, and the United States.
Egypt, already Africa’s largest wheat consumer, has consistently relied on substantial imports to meet domestic needs, particularly to support its subsidized bread program. The country has imported over 12 million tons in each of the past two years, and USDA forecasts suggest a potential record of 13 million tons in the coming season. Egypt’s population, now exceeding 108 million, continues to drive demand higher. While local wheat production is expected to increase slightly to around 9.2 million tons – boosted by expanded planted areas and government purchase incentives – it will still fall short of the country’s projected consumption of over 20 million tons.
Indonesia is likewise poised to increase its wheat purchases after a period of reduced demand. The nation is almost entirely dependent on imports for its wheat supply. In the previous season, Indonesia imported approximately 10.4 million tons, a decrease attributed to lower feed demand and inventory adjustments. However, anticipated growth in both the milling and feed sectors is expected to drive imports back up to around 13 million tons in the 2025/2026 marketing year.
Recent trade data indicates shifts in Egypt’s import patterns. In 2025, Egypt imported around 13.2 million tons of wheat, an 8 percent decrease from the prior year. This decline was influenced by both higher global prices, reaching approximately US$250 per ton, and increased domestic supply. Hisham Suleiman, director of Mediterranean Star Trading and Grain Import Company, noted that imports were also affected by a decline in local demand for fino bread due to reduced purchasing power among citizens.
The Egyptian government also reduced its state-led wheat imports by 15 percent, to roughly 4.5 million tons, while simultaneously increasing procurement of locally produced wheat to approximately 4 million tons – an 18 percent increase from the previous harvest. Officials are aiming to further expand domestic procurement efforts as a means of reducing reliance on foreign wheat in the coming years.
A U.S. Trade mission, led by USDA Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg, recently arrived in Jakarta, Indonesia, with a delegation of 41 agribusinesses and representatives from state departments of agriculture, to explore new market access for U.S. Agricultural products, including wheat. The mission comes as a new trade deal between the U.S. And Indonesia eliminates import licensing and quota barriers, opening access to a US$67 billion packaged food market. Implementation of expanded Halal certification standards by October 2026 presents a challenge for U.S. Exporters.
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