Shares of International Business Machines (IBM) plummeted 13% on Monday, February 23, 2026, marking the company’s largest single-day drop in 25 years, following the release of a report by Citrini Research outlining potential risks to the global economy stemming from advancements in artificial intelligence. The selloff extended to other tech companies, including DoorDash, American Express, and Uber Technologies, as investors reacted to Citrini’s analysis.
Citrini Research, a thematic equity and global macro research firm, published its report on social media Sunday, February 22, 2026, detailing a hypothetical scenario set in the future, warning of disruptions to food delivery services and credit card companies. The firm’s analysis, described as a “thought exercise in financial history, from the future,” posited a scenario where continued advancements in AI could lead to unforeseen economic consequences. The report, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” was authored by Citrini and Alap Shah.
The timing of the report coincided with an announcement from AI startup Anthropic, which stated that its Claude Code tool could assist in modernizing COBOL, a decades-aged programming language still widely used in legacy systems, particularly within IBM infrastructure. This development raised concerns about the potential for AI to displace skilled labor and render existing technology investments obsolete.
Nassim Taleb, a noted risk analyst, amplified the concerns raised by Citrini Research, warning investors to prepare for increased volatility and potential bankruptcies in the software sector as the AI rally enters a “fragile phase.” Taleb’s comments added further weight to the growing anxieties surrounding the rapid pace of AI development and its potential impact on established industries.
The market reaction to Citrini’s report and subsequent commentary was swift and significant. The S&P 500 had flirted with 8000 and the Nasdaq had broken above 30,000 in October 2026, fueled by optimism surrounding AI. However, the initial wave of layoffs linked to human obsolescence, which began in early 2026, had not prevented a cumulative drawdown in the S&P of 38% from its October 2026 highs by February 2026. The unemployment rate printed 10.2% in March 2026, a figure that traders, previously desensitized to market fluctuations, acknowledged as a significant shift.
Citrini Research’s report outlined a scenario where the benefits of AI-driven productivity gains are offset by widespread job displacement and economic disruption. The firm’s analysis suggests that the initial positive effects of AI on corporate profits and stock valuations may be unsustainable in the long run, as the broader economic consequences of automation turn into more apparent. The report, a “Macro Memo” dated February 22, 2026, and finalized June 30, 2028, detailed a progression from “contained” and “sector-specific” impacts to a fundamentally altered economy.
Founded in 2025, Citrini Research focuses on identifying and analyzing transformative “megatrends” impacting financial markets. The firm provides research to institutional investors, offering insights into thematic equity investing and global macro trading. Citrini’s recent publications include primers on various themes and a regularly updated Citrindex, a model portfolio based on its research.
As of February 23, 2026, neither IBM nor Anthropic had issued a formal response to the Citrini Research report or Taleb’s comments. The long-term implications of the AI-driven market volatility remain uncertain, and investors are closely monitoring developments for further signals of potential systemic risk.
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