Diesel prices in Poland are poised to reach a new record high next week, potentially exceeding the previous peak of 8.08 złoty per liter set in October 2022, according to analysts at Reflex. The anticipated increase comes as global oil markets remain volatile amid escalating tensions in the Middle East.
As of Thursday, March 19, 2026, the average retail price of diesel fuel in Poland stood at 7.88 złoty per liter, a 24 groszy increase from the previous week. Gasoline prices have also risen, with the average price of 95-octane gasoline reaching 6.90 złoty per liter – a 37 groszy weekly increase. Autogas currently averages 3.39 złoty per liter, up 21 groszy over the week.
Rafał Zywert, Director of Forecasting and Analysis at Reflex, noted that the October 2022 record did not reflect current market conditions due to a reduced Value Added Tax (VAT) rate on fuels at that time. He estimates that without the reduced VAT, diesel prices would have surpassed 9 złoty per liter in 2022. Zywert predicts the national average diesel price will exceed 8 złoty per liter in the coming week.
Regional price variations are significant. In the Mazowieckie province, the average price of 95-octane gasoline has already reached 7.00 złoty per liter, the highest in the country. Lubelskie and Kujawsko-Pomorskie provinces follow closely with averages of 6.95 złoty and 6.94 złoty respectively. The lowest prices are currently found in the Łódzkie (6.79 złoty) and Pomorskie (6.80 złoty) provinces.
For diesel fuel, the Świętokrzyskie province currently has the highest average price at 7.95 złoty per liter, tied with Zachodniopomorskie. Lubelskie and Podkarpackie provinces are close behind at 7.93 złoty per liter. The lowest diesel prices are in Śląskie (7.75 złoty) and Mazowieckie (7.78 złoty) provinces.
Reflex forecasts a national average price of 7.19 złoty per liter for 95-octane gasoline and 8.19 złoty per liter for diesel fuel next week, representing increases of 29 groszy and 31 groszy respectively. Analysts at e-petrol.pl predict a slightly lower range for gasoline (6.94-7.09 złoty) but a similar range for diesel (8.09-8.25 złoty).
The rising fuel costs are linked to disruptions in global oil supply, with e-petrol.pl citing a shortfall of approximately 12 million barrels per day – roughly 12 percent of global demand. Escalating conflict in the Middle East, including recent attacks on Kuwaiti refinery infrastructure and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, are identified as key destabilizing factors. Brent crude oil prices have exceeded 110-115 dollars per barrel and are “testing” the 120 dollar mark, according to analysts at Malcolm Finance.
Malcolm Finance reports that the fuel market has ceased to respond to economic fundamentals, with pricing now driven primarily by geopolitical events and the risk of supply disruptions. Diesel fuel is particularly vulnerable to logistical constraints and supply chain tensions. The firm suggests transport companies shift from cost management to geopolitical risk management, shortening contract periods and closely monitoring market developments.
E-petrol.pl analysts note that while crude oil prices saw a temporary dip over the weekend, these changes were attributed to expectations of political intervention rather than a genuine improvement in supply conditions.
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