Islamabad – Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food Security and Research announced Friday it anticipates no fertiliser shortages for the current Rabi crop and the upcoming Kharif season, despite escalating tensions in the Middle East posing risks to global energy and food systems. The assessment, detailed in a situation report, indicates a strong alignment between fertiliser supply and demand within the country.
According to the ministry, domestic production currently meets 90 to 95 percent of Pakistan’s total urea demand, with imports covering the remaining shortfall. Consumption is growing annually at a rate of 2 to 5 percent, a trend the ministry attributes to increasing agricultural productivity. Stock buffers are currently estimated between 5 to 10 percent of seasonal demand, bolstering confidence in supply for both Rabi 2025-26 and Kharif 2026.
Data released alongside the announcement shows urea availability during the current Rabi season has exceeded 3.5 million tons, surpassing the demand of approximately 3.3 million tons, resulting in a surplus of 150,000 to 200,000 tons. Diammonium phosphate (DAP) availability also remains robust, exceeding 700,000 tons against a demand of around 650,000 tons.
Looking ahead to Kharif 2026, the ministry projects urea availability between 3 to 3.2 million tons, against an expected demand of 2.9 to 3 million tons. DAP availability is estimated at 750,000 to 800,000 tons, compared to a demand of approximately 700,000 tons. These projections suggest a continued comfortable buffer of 50,000 to 100,000 tons for both nutrients.
The report highlights the critical importance of a consistent natural gas supply – between 700 to 800 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) – to maintain this stability. Approximately 60 to 65 percent of fertiliser production relies on gas supplied by Sui Northern Gas Pakistan Limited, with the remainder utilizing dedicated or diverted gas sources. Even with temporary shutdowns of one or two plants, the ministry states, production capacity remains above 85 to 90 percent of national demand.
Pakistan’s total fertiliser production capacity is approximately 7 million tons of urea annually, with major producers including Fauji Fertiliser Company (capacity exceeding 2.5 million tons), Engro Fertilisers (around 2.3 million tons), Fatima Fertiliser (700,000–800,000 tons) and Fauji Fertiliser Bin Qasim (DAP capacity around 650,000 tons). Urea consumption has increased from approximately 6.0 million tons to 6.8 to 7.0 million tons over the last five years, representing a compound annual growth rate of 2 to 3 percent. DAP consumption has risen from about 1.1 million tons to nearly 1.4 million tons, indicating a growth rate of 4 to 5 percent.
The ministry also noted domestic fertiliser prices remain comparatively stable. Urea currently sells for between Rs3,700 to Rs4,000 per 50kg bag, significantly lower than international prices which range from Rs5,500 to Rs6,000. Similarly, DAP prices domestically range from Rs11,500 to Rs12,500 per bag, while international prices exceed Rs14,000.
Pakistan cultivates approximately 22–23 million hectares annually across two major seasons. Wheat occupies roughly 9 million hectares during Rabi, while rice, cotton, and sugarcane cover approximately 3, 2 to 2.5, and 1.2 million hectares respectively during Kharif.
Leave a Reply