The first major upsets of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament unfolded Thursday, shattering millions of brackets within hours and dramatically reducing the odds of anyone achieving a perfect prediction. High Point stunned fifth-seeded Wisconsin in the first round, a result that alone eliminated over 25 million brackets in ESPN’s challenge, according to tournament trackers.
The Panthers’ victory was the first of four wins by double-digit seeds on the tournament’s opening day, a cascade of unexpected results that left fewer than one in 2,400 brackets in the ESPN challenge still intact by the afternoon’s finish. VCU (11th seed), Texas (11th seed), and Texas A&M (10th seed) also secured upset victories.
North Carolina’s overtime loss to VCU, 82-78, was particularly notable, as the Tar Heels were without leading scorer Caleb Wilson due to a broken thumb. Despite the absence of their star player, North Carolina squandered a 19-point second-half lead. BYU also suffered a setback, falling to Texas 79-71, continuing a downward trend since losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL two months prior. The team had lost five of nine games entering the tournament.
Saint Mary’s faced its own challenges, with leading scorer Paulius Murauskas sidelined by illness at the start of their game against Texas A&M. Limited to four points in 23 minutes, Murauskas could not prevent a 63-50 defeat.
As of the conclusion of the first day, ESPN reported that only approximately 10,000 of the 26.5 million brackets submitted – roughly 0.04% – remained unblemished. The NCAA estimates the probability of a perfect bracket at one in 9.2 quintillion, assuming random selections, or one in 120 billion with informed picks.
The NCAA’s own bracket challenge mirrored ESPN’s results, with 0.04% of entries still holding a perfect record after the initial round of games. The tournament’s unpredictable nature was further highlighted by a near-upset by 16th-seeded Siena against top-seeded Duke, which ultimately did not materialize.
The NCAA estimates between 60 and 100 million brackets are filled out annually, with a significant portion participating in online challenges.
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