A surprising statistical analysis of 24 seasons of Korean Baseball Organization (KBO) play reveals a remarkably weak correlation between performance in exhibition games and regular season success, reinforcing a long-held belief among fans that spring training results are often misleading.
The analysis, covering the years 2001 through 2025 (excluding 2020, when the COVID-19 pandemic canceled exhibition games), calculated Pearson correlation coefficients to assess the relationship between exhibition and regular season standings. The results showed a correlation of just 0.235 when comparing final rankings, and 0.268 when comparing win percentages. Statistically, a value below 0.3 is generally considered to indicate “almost no correlation,” according to the report from Yonhap News Agency.
This lack of correlation has been a recurring observation in KBO baseball. Only twice in the 24-year period did the team that finished first in exhibition play likewise claim the regular season title: the Samsung Lions in 2002 and the SK Wyverns (now SSG Landers) in 2007. The trend is particularly pronounced in the current 10-team league format, where the correlation has dwindled to 0.118, nearing zero.
Experts suggest this diminishing correlation reflects a shift in team strategy. With larger rosters and a greater emphasis on player development, teams are increasingly using exhibition games as an opportunity to evaluate players and assess conditioning, rather than prioritizing wins. The focus has moved from showcasing established stars to experimenting with lineups and giving playing time to reserves.
This trend was strikingly illustrated in 2022, when the SSG Landers finished tied for sixth in exhibition play but went on to achieve a historic “wire-to-wire” championship, winning both the regular season and the Korean Series.
As of March 21, 2026, with just four exhibition games remaining for each team, the Lotte Giants lead the league with a record of 5 wins, 2 ties, and 1 loss. The Doosan Bears are close behind at 6 wins and 2 losses. Both teams, having missed the postseason in the previous season, are demonstrating early promise. Conversely, the Kiwoom Heroes are at the bottom of the standings with a 2-1-5 record, tied with the KIA Tigers.
Although Lotte and Doosan fans may view their teams’ exhibition success as a positive omen, and Kiwoom and KIA fans may be concerned, the statistical analysis suggests that these early results should be viewed with caution. The true test will initiate on March 28th with the start of the regular season.
Leave a Reply