Brent crude oil surged past $112 a barrel on Friday, March 20, 2026, following a series of escalating retaliatory strikes between Israel and Iran, raising fears of significant disruption to global energy supplies. The price jump reflects market reaction to Israel, with U.S. Coordination, striking Iran’s largest gas field and subsequent Iranian retaliation targeting energy assets in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.
Damage has been reported at Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, a facility that provides approximately 20% of the world’s liquefied natural gas. Unconfirmed reports as well suggest a potential hit on the Saudi Yanbu oil pipeline, a critical artery for delivering oil to the Red Sea. If confirmed, damage to the pipeline could remove millions of barrels of oil per day from the market, exacerbating supply concerns.
Rabobank’s Senior Global Strategist Michael Every warned of a potential “escalate to immolate” scenario for global oil markets, highlighting the risk of a downward spiral in supply. The bank’s analysis points to the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 21 million barrels of oil – nearly one-fifth of global consumption – transits daily, as a particularly vulnerable chokepoint. Past regional conflicts have historically caused oil prices to spike by 30% or more within weeks, according to Rabobank.
The situation is further complicated by speculation that the United States is considering a crude oil export tariff or ban to curb energy prices. Such a move, while intended to alleviate domestic price pressures, could disrupt global energy markets, widening the gap between Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude – already at an 11-year high – and potentially impacting energy supplies to Asia, and Europe.
Analysts at RBC have indicated that Middle East leaders have cautioned Washington that a war with Iran could drive oil prices above $100 a barrel. The current volatility follows a period of already fragile global supply chains and persistent inflationary pressures, raising concerns among policymakers and investors.
Iran’s strategic position allows it to potentially disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, including through mining the strait or attempting a blockade. Increased maritime insurance premiums and rerouting of vessels by shipping companies are already adding to costs and delays. As of March 19, 2026, Brent crude was trading around $112 per barrel and one-month TTF (Title Transfer Facility, a European gas benchmark) at €54.
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