Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader since 1989, died on February 28, 2026, in Tehran, according to multiple reports. His death came during a period of intense conflict with Israel and the United States, marked by coordinated missile attacks on Iranian soil.
The attacks, which targeted both civilian infrastructure and military sites, culminated a three-year period of escalating tensions that began with unprecedented missile exchanges in April 2024. The United States’ direct involvement in the conflict deepened in 2025, though President Donald Trump’s claims of having “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program following a 12-day bombing campaign were, in retrospect, overstated, as diplomatic negotiations continued in the weeks leading up to the February 28th assault.
Among the casualties of the February 28th attacks was a girls’ school in Tehran, resulting in over 170 deaths. The assault as well directly targeted the highest levels of the Iranian government, including the Supreme Leader. Ayatollah Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has been named as his successor, though reports indicate he was injured in the recent bombings and has not made a public appearance.
The attacks occurred against a backdrop of regional instability. Since 2024, neighboring countries have experienced frequent aerial bombardments from both Israeli and Iranian forces. The closure of the Iranian side of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supplies, further exacerbated the crisis, effectively placing the global economy under force majeure conditions.
Prior to Khamenei’s death, Iran had already experienced significant leadership losses. President Ebrahim Raisi died in a helicopter accident near Azerbaijan in May 2024. Israel had also been conducting targeted killings of Iranian proxies in the region, weakening the leadership of groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Domestic unrest, fueled by economic grievances and international sanctions, had also been growing in Iran, with demonstrations occurring in major cities prior to the escalation of the conflict.
The United States’ approach to the conflict has been characterized by a lack of traditional alliances. Trump appealed for “friendly nations” to protect the Strait of Hormuz after Iran began mining the area, but this call went largely unanswered. This stands in contrast to previous US interventions, such as the 1991 Gulf War or the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which involved broader multinational coalitions. US military bases in Bahrain, the UAE, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Cyprus, and Türkiye have become targets for Iranian missiles.
The international response has been fragmented. The United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and Pope Leo XIV have repeatedly called for a ceasefire, but to no avail. Iran recently joined the BRICS+ group, but the alliance has remained silent on the conflict. Russia has benefited from rising oil prices and has offered to mediate a deal, potentially leveraging the situation to gain concessions regarding the war in Ukraine. China has emphasized the importance of territorial integrity and international law, while India has maintained a low profile, keeping diplomatic channels open with both sides.
Within the European Union, divisions have emerged. Some member states have supported the US-Israeli war effort, while others have condemned the Iranian regime and imposed further sanctions. President of the EU Commission Ursula Von der Leyen recently declared the finish of “European custody” over a rules-based world order. The United Kingdom reluctantly allowed the US to use its military bases, despite Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s concerns about international law. France and Spain have offered mediation efforts, but the overall EU response remains fractured.
The current US approach, characterized as “diffuse unilateralism,” diverges from previous American foreign policy doctrines. It prioritizes maximizing American prosperity through selective deals and displays of military strength, rather than relying on institutional investment or reciprocal agreements. This approach, according to analysis, is not solely focused on Israel, as Israel has conducted military operations in Syria and Lebanon without overt US support. The intervention in Iran is seen as part of a broader pattern of actions under the Trump administration, including attempts to influence oil prices and renegotiate trade agreements.
The United States’ decoupling from the Liberal International Order has left a void in global governance. The European Union, while attempting to uphold a rules-based order, lacks the capacity to do so effectively and is internally divided. The international landscape is increasingly fragmented, making it challenging to address the globalized consequences of the conflict in West Asia. As of March 2026, the situation remains unresolved, with no immediate prospects for a ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough.
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