Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has repeatedly asserted that U.S. Strikes against Iran are escalating in both number and intensity, yet data released by the U.S. Military suggests a more fluctuating pattern of operations over the past three weeks. On Thursday, Hegseth claimed, “today will be the largest strike package yet, just like yesterday was,” continuing a pattern of similar pronouncements made during a series of Pentagon press briefings alongside Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine.
Beginning March 4th, Hegseth predicted “more and larger waves” of strikes, stating the Defense Department was “accelerating, not decelerating.” He declared on March 10th that “today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran,” and reiterated the claim on March 13th. However, publicly available data from U.S. Central Command does not consistently demonstrate a daily increase in strikes, a discrepancy potentially attributable to maintenance needs for aircraft and ships, or the military’s progression through a pre-determined target list, followed by efforts to identify new ones.
When questioned about the differing accounts, U.S. Central Command directed inquiries to the Defense Department. A department official stated that the department “continues to intensify our operations against military targets in Iran,” according to CNN reporting. This divergence highlights a potential disconnect between official messaging and the operational reality on the ground.
During briefings, Hegseth has characterized the U.S. Effort as “winning decisively,” claiming Iran’s air defenses have been “flattened” and its industrial base “overwhelmingly destroyed,” further asserting that Iran possesses “no air defenses…no air force….no Navy.” While Iran’s military capabilities have undoubtedly been degraded, and senior Iranian leaders including Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Ali Larijani, the head of Iran’s National Security Council, have been killed by Israel, the U.S. Has faced challenges securing safe passage for commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, which remains effectively closed due to Iranian threats. Tehran has also continued retaliatory actions against neighboring nations and U.S. Forces in the region.
On Thursday, an American F-35 fighter jet was forced to make an emergency landing after reportedly being struck by Iranian forces during a combat mission, raising questions about Hegseth’s March 4th assertion that the U.S. And Israel would achieve “complete control of Iranian skies” by the end of that week.
Analysis of U.S. Central Command’s released strike data reveals that the number of attacks has not increased steadily since Hegseth’s initial briefing. Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and senior advisor to the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Defense and Security Department, explained to CNN that fluctuations are not unexpected. He suggested that the operation may be transitioning into a sustained air campaign, necessitating maintenance for aircraft and ships, a process that allows for initial surges in activity. Cancian noted that the USS Gerald R. Ford is temporarily diverting to Souda Bay, Crete, for repairs following a fire in the ship’s laundry area.
Cancian also pointed out that the military likely began the campaign utilizing a long-standing CENTCOM target list, and is now focused on identifying and confirming new targets as the initial list is exhausted. “I think for both reasons, that rate of attacks has sort of moderated to a level that is on average, below 1,000 a day,” he said.
CENTCOM has released strike data in intervals, reporting increases in total targets struck rather than daily figures. This data shows that the average number of strikes per day has varied over time, peaking on the first day of the operation with over 1,000 targets hit. Between March 9th and March 12th, targets struck increased by approximately 1,000, averaging 333 strikes per day. However, on March 10th, Hegseth stated, “today will be yet again our most intense day of strikes inside Iran, the most fighters, the most bombers, the most strikes, intelligence more refined and better than ever.”
On March 13th, Hegseth claimed “today will be yet again the highest volume of strikes that America has put over the skies of Iran and Tehran.” Yet, between March 12th and March 16th, the U.S. Averaged roughly 250 strikes per day, with the total number of targets increasing from approximately 6,000 to over 7,000. There have been periods of increased activity, such as March 2nd (250 targets) and March 3rd (450 targets), and between March 6th and March 9th (an average of 666 targets per day), compared to an average of 433 targets between March 3rd and March 6th.
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