WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is grappling with the potential for a monthslong closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil shipments, as Iran continues to disrupt maritime traffic in retaliation for U.S. And Israeli military actions. Internal assessments suggest Iran could sustain a blockage for up to six months, though White House officials downplayed the severity of that estimate.
The crisis stems from escalating tensions following recent U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting Iranian military assets. In response, Iran has targeted vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the U.S. To intensify efforts to secure the passage. According to administration officials, reopening the strait presents a unique challenge, lacking a clear solution and hinging on President Trump’s willingness to escalate pressure on Tehran.
“One of the core conundrums of this conflict is the Iranians have real leverage with this, and there’s not an obvious fix for it,” an intelligence official told CNN. The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) reportedly assessed that Iran could maintain the closure for one to six months, a timeframe Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell dismissed as an unrealistic “worst-case scenario.” Parnell stated, “One assessment does not imply the assessment is plausible, and it’s dangerous for the media to cherry pick the worst case scenario to scare the American people,” adding that the Pentagon was prepared for Iranian attempts to disrupt the strait.
The White House echoed this sentiment, with press secretary Karoline Leavitt asserting that the U.S. Military is “zeroed in on systematically eliminating the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to disrupt the free flow of energy.” The DIA declined to comment on the reported assessment.
Whereas U.S. And Israeli military operations have damaged Iran’s capabilities, Tehran retains a stockpile of short-range missiles and alternative methods for targeting tankers, including smaller craft, submarines, and even jet skis potentially laden with explosives. Escort missions through the strait would require a significant deployment of destroyers, officials said. The U.S. Has deployed A-10 Warthogs to the region to attack ships in the strait, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Dan Caine.
President Trump has sought assistance from international allies in securing the strait, publicly criticizing their reluctance and suggesting the U.S. Might leave the task to them after “finishing off” Iran. “That would get some of our non-responsive ‘Allies’ in gear, and fast!!!” he wrote on Truth Social. European nations, however, have largely rejected Trump’s call for help, with EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas stating that Europe has “no interest in an open-ended war” and that securing the strait is “America’s problem to solve.” The EU declined to expand the mandate of its naval mission, Aspides, to include patrolling the strait.
The geographical challenges of securing the 100-mile-long strait are significant. While deploying troops to islands within the strait could provide strategic positioning, it would similarly carry substantial risk. “People totally underestimate just how vast the strait is. Logistically, it’s such a long shoreline…that it’s difficult to do any one thing to effectively neuter the threat from Iran,” an intelligence official explained. “The Iranians can be set up anywhere along the shoreline.”
U.S. Officials have privately discussed potential leverage points, including capturing Kharg Island, a key Iranian economic hub handling approximately 90% of the country’s crude exports, or destroying its oil infrastructure. The U.S. Military’s recent attack on Kharg Island was described as a signal of Trump’s willingness to escalate pressure. One official suggested that taking Kharg Island could “totally bankrupt” Iran’s Revolutionary Guard and potentially end the war swiftly, but concerns remain about the need for a significant ground troop deployment. Trump, however, stated he was “not putting troops anywhere.”
The closure of the strait is already impacting global oil markets and driving up gas prices in the U.S. Roughly 20% of the world’s oil passes through the waterway, and the administration is struggling to locate alternative supply sources. Average gas prices in the US are steadily increasing.
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