California’s push for cleaner gasoline, decades in the making, has demonstrably improved air quality within the state, but a growing body of evidence suggests the environmental benefits are being offset—and potentially reversed—by a complex shift in where the world’s oil is refined. While tailpipe emissions of certain pollutants have fallen, the state’s policies are contributing to increased oil imports and a rise in pollution at refineries located in countries with less stringent environmental regulations.
California has long been a leader in regulating gasoline formulation, beginning in 1996 with efforts to reduce smog and toxic air contaminants. These regulations, continually tightened over the years, have led to significant reductions in pollutants like benzene, acetaldehyde, and formaldehyde, according to a 2023 study published in Nature. The study found that gasoline-attributable cancer risks from these carcinogens declined by over 80% between 1996 and 2014, despite increased vehicle miles traveled and vehicle registrations.
However, this success comes at a cost. California’s stringent regulations, coupled with the closure of refineries within the state—Phillips 66 in Los Angeles and Valero in the Bay Area are slated to close—have created a reliance on imported gasoline and crude oil. As of July 2025, the state has lost more than 30 refineries in the last few decades and now operates only nine major gasoline-producing facilities. The impending closures of the Phillips 66 and Valero refineries represent a loss of nearly 18% of the state’s total refining capacity.
“If you don’t acquire that first 8%,” meaning the initial processing of crude oil, “You don’t get the rest of our economy,” explained Michael A. Mische, a guest contributor to the Los Angeles Times. This dependence on imports means California is increasingly reliant on oil from countries like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Guyana, Ecuador, and, ironically, Russia and Venezuela—nations often lacking the strict environmental and labor protections found in California.
The issue isn’t simply the origin of the crude oil, but also where the gasoline is refined. As California dismantles its refining infrastructure, more finished gasoline is being produced abroad. These foreign refineries often operate with lower environmental standards, resulting in higher levels of pollution during the refining process. Crucially, pollution generated during the transportation of this oil—on tankers traversing international waters—is not factored into California’s emissions accounting.
This shift in pollution burden was highlighted by Dan Walters of CalMatters, who reported in March 2026 that the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) new crackdown on greenhouse gas emissions “risks driving production, and the associated emissions, out of state, ultimately undermining both California’s economic base and global climate objectives.” Lance Hastings, President of the California Manufacturers & Technology Association, warned that the proposed regulations could lead to higher costs for Californians and potentially force more refineries to exit the state.
The CARB is facing pressure from both sides. While industry groups warn of economic consequences, environmental organizations argue the proposed rules don’t go far enough. A coalition including the Environmental Defense Fund has criticized the regulations for failing to adequately address climate change.
The consequences of this global pollution shift extend beyond immediate health concerns. The increased carbon emissions contribute to climate change impacts—wildfires, heat waves, and sea-level rise—that disproportionately affect California. The state is effectively exporting its pollution problems, while simultaneously experiencing the amplified effects of global climate change.
As of March 20, 2026, CARB has not publicly responded to the criticism regarding the displacement of pollution and continues to move forward with its proposed regulations. A scheduled legislative hearing to discuss potential amendments to the rules is set for April 15, 2026.
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