Finally on friday YPF paid US $ 63.7 million of the 2025 bond coupon and eased the mood of the holders and the market that is with its sights set on February 5.
That day closes the acceptance of the improved debt swap proposal after the failure of the original one, which had achieved only 13% adherence as it was considered hostile by creditors.
At the oil company, they blame Minister Martín Guzmán for the failure of the original proposal, which contemplated paying nothing for two years and an 8.5% annual rate for the rest.
Now they trust that by improving conditions, with the payment of interest from the start and a interest rate increase, the creditors agree to postpone the collection of the US $ 430 million due on March 23 for which the company lacks the foreign exchange.
In the oil company they say they have the pesos to buy the dollars from the Central Bank, but Miguel Pesce had already advanced in September that the companies had to refinance their payments abroad, foreseeing that they would only have dollars at the official price to meet 40% of their obligations.
Can YPF, then, put on the table US $ 430 million next March 23? Impossible and that is why it is important that the new exchange be accepted by a large majority of bondholders. Is acceptance assured? Neither, but at least he ended up complying on Friday, January 29, with the payment of a coupon.
The strategy that Minister Martín Guzmán already used to start a negotiation appearing hard In front of the creditors, and then end up accepting their conditions, it appears ineffective for an Argentina that has a government that the markets distrust, with cut credit and offering stellar interest rates in a world where money is little less than free.
Now that the second month of summer has entered and with the enormous uncertainty that the population has about the possibilities that the Government will get enough vaccines before autumn, the bet on some kind of stability rests on two pillars: the possibility of an agreement with the IMF and the ability of the Central Bank to manage the exchange rate and the dollar.
According to Minister Guzmán, negotiations with the Fund could end in an agreement before May to refinance the US$44.000 millones that expire in 2022-2023.
To do this, in addition to mitigating the palpable threat of an inflation rebound in the first quarter, the government will have to tell the Fund and the Argentines how it plans to get the dollars necessary to pay the external commitments for the coming years.
President Alberto Fernández highlighted at the Davos world summit that he has the support of the head of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, and that the agreement they reach will be sent to Congress for approval.
Economists who speak with Washington officials believe that, in the midst of the pandemic and the social situation in the country, the crucial thing for the Fund will be that the agreement has the political backing of Cristina Kirchner.
The point is delicate; Kirchnerism and the political class in general have as their north the legislative elections of October and it will be necessary to see if the vice president signs an agreement with the IMF, considered little less than the devil by her followers.
Since, as in the cases of the debt swap of the Nation and YPF, this support will largely depend on the fear of the financial cliff that may imply putting the exchange stability achieved at risk.
Meanwhile, in recent weeks, a pessimistic view of the economic future has gained space among usually optimistic operators.
A survey by Analogías (worked for years for K governments) consulted 2,843 people in December about the image of the president, the vice president and also about the economic situation.
A key result of the survey published by Clarín was referred to: how do you think the situation will be in the next two years? 57.5% said “worst” and 37.1% “best”. Pessimism grew with respect to the previous survey. Has the government analyzed it or will it consider it to be an internal Chicana?
