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Without control of the pandemic, Brazil becomes a laboratory for strains of the virus

O possible emergence of a new coronavirus variant in Sorocaba, in the interior of São Paulo, this week turned on the warning signal among researchers. With the pandemic out of control, Brazil is becoming a laboratory for the evolution of the virus.

For experts heard by the Twitter, the emergence of other strains, such as P1 (identified in Manaus in January), is not only possible but also probable in the face of the worsening health crisis. And the worst: without tracking, Brazil will take time to discover them.

The greater the transmission, the greater the risk of variants

According to the researchers, the equation to be made is simple: the greater the circulation of the virus, the greater the chance of variants.

“The variants arise mainly due to the pressure of transmission. In other words, the more people transmitting, the greater the probability that a mutant virus will appear. It is a determining factor for the occurrence of viral changes”, says Bernardino Albuquerque, epidemiologist at Fiocruz (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz) , in the Amazon.

This year, the baud rate of the virus in Brazil, which had declined in late 2020, remains above 1, according to the University Imperial College London, from the United Kingdom, which indicates uncontrolled pandemic in the country.

In Brazil, the virus is full of possibilities for replication and mutation. It is not surprising that new variants appear, it is inevitable. Nor is it surprising that P1, for example, evolves “
Monica from Bolle, professor at the University Johns Hopkins and member of the “Covid-19 BR Observatory”

Delayed virus sequencing

For Rafael Dhalia, a researcher at Fiocruz (Fundação Oswaldo Cruz), in Pernambuco, not only can more and more variants emerge, it is possible that they are already in circulation in Brazil, but without monitoring, there is no way to identify them.

“These variants happen all over the world, they are coevolutions, but, for us to know, we have to sequence the virus. Here we have no idea. This variant found in Sorocaba may already be in Brazil all over and we don’t know”, says the member APC (Academia Pernambucana de Ciências).

And in vaccination and on testing, the country is also very late in virus sequencing. While the United Kingdom sequences 50 people for every 1,000 cases to identify developments, in Brazil the rate is 0.15 for every 1,000 cases. That is, it is sequenced for about 7,000 confirmed cases.

Do you know where P1, from Manaus, was identified? In Japan, because of a Brazilian who arrived feverish and they decided to sequence the virus. Soon, it was necessary for a person to leave Brazil to discover P1. It’s shameful”
Rafael Dhalia, researcher at Fiocruz

In Brazil, in addition to P1, another variant was identified, dubbed P2, in Rio de Janeiro. Without a tracked incidence, it is considered isolated, but, according to Dhalia, “there is no way to guarantee” this.

Risk is the type of variant

The emergence of variants is common when it comes to a virus. With greater contact with a species it adapts and creates resistance. Therefore, mutations do not scare, what worries is what it can turn.

The big question is not new variants in themselves, but what kind of variants they are. Are they the ones that cause concern? Are they like P1, more transmissible? How are they going to have relevant epidemiological effects? ”
Monica from Bolle

Dimas Covas, director of Instituto Butantan, who participated in the announcement of the Sorocaba variant, also said he saw the situation carefully and reinforced that it is necessary to track the virus.

“In addition to seeing the incidence, it is crucial to understand whether this evolution can be even more transmissible than P1. This is what causes some concern, which we need to monitor,” said Covas. Twitter.

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In January, stimulated by the P1 variant, the health system in Manaus collapsed due to the lack of respirators.

Image: SANDRO PEREIRA / ESTADÃO CONTENT

Vaccines have shown effectiveness, but there is no guarantee

Research on vaccine efficacy in the main variants is still being done by companies and researchers and, until then, the results have been satisfactory.

Most immunizers have already shown better results against the UK strain, for example. Against P1, studies are more restricted, but both the AstraZeneca/Oxford as for CoronaVac, used in Brazil, have already had positive responses.

The one that worries most, until then, is the South Africa variant (E484K), at which the strain discovered in Sorocaba resembles. “We saw this with all the vaccines: she takes a percentage [de eficácia] Pfizer, AstraZeneca, CoronaVac. Of that [variante nova], we still don’t know “, said Covas.

According to the Ministry of Health, despite some suspicions, no case of the South African variant has been confirmed here.

If the similarities between the Sorocaba strain – already called P3 – and that of South Africa are confirmed, it is more likely that it is a case of virus coevolution in both places, since the patient identified in São Paulo did not travel or have had contact direct with a traveler who was in the African country.

Better to prevent

To reduce the likelihood of new and stronger variants, it is necessary to decrease the circulation of the virus and speed up immunization. According to the researchers, the ideal was to have tried to avoid the strains that have already appeared, but it is never too late to seek deceleration.

The negationist speech, of herd immunity, proved to be totally wrong and only contributed to the emergence of these variants. Countries that have made this control [de circulação] did not see the emergence of worrying developments. If Brazil had listened back there, it would certainly have avoided “
Rafael Dhalia, gives Fiocruz in Pernambuco

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