It is also noted that today Russian troops managed to enter Lisichansk and advance within the city.
Withdrawal of Ukrainian troops to Seversk Donetsk region will allow Ukrainian forces to reduce the risk of immediate encirclement by the Russian occupying forces.
This is stated in the report of analysts Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
So, it is noted that today Russian troops managed to enter Lysichansk and advance within the city, but the Ukrainian military did not officially announce the withdrawal of troops from Lysichansk, but did not report defensive battles around the city either.
Ukrainian Interior Minister Vadim Denisenko vaguely remarked that Russian troops have a “high probability” of capturing Lysychansk, but will have difficulty advancing in the Donetsk region past Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. Ukrainian National Guard spokesman Ruslan Muzychuk dismissed reports that Russian troops captured and surrounded Lisichansk,” the report says.
Also, according to American analysts, Russian forces can establish control over the remaining territory of the Luhansk region in the coming days.
“Most likely, they will then strike at Ukrainian positions in Seversk, and then turn towards Slavyansk and Bakhmut. Withdrawing Ukrainian troops to Seversk will allow Ukrainian forces to reduce the risk of immediate encirclement, but Ukrainian forces may continue to withdraw with fighting to the line near the E40 highway from Slavyansk to Bakhmut,” the report says.
Analysts also commented on the message of the Russian Ministry of Defense that on July 2, Chief of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov inspected the grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine.
The post was likely in response to recent rumors that Gerasimov had been ousted as part of a Kremlin-led purge of senior Russian military officials over Russia’s failures in Ukraine. The Russian Defense Ministry stepped up claims that Ukrainian media lied about the removal Gerasimov, and stated that Gerasimov still holds the post of chief of the General Staff.The hasty display of a slide show that does not clearly show that Gerasimov has recently carried out his duties in Ukraine indicates that the Russian leadership is sensitive to rumors of a purge high-ranking Russian officers,” the post notes.
It also says the Kremlin is also likely seeking to maintain or restore confidence in the Russian military leadership amid major organizational restructuring, setbacks and high casualties, as previously reported by ISW.
Recall that on June 30, the Russian invaders left the island Serpentinecalling it a “goodwill gesture”. According to Forbes, in fact, the Russians did not withstand the blows of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, having lost on Zmeinoye and in the surrounding waters of equipment more than $ 600 million.