The flu kills 10,000 people in France every year, when the Chinese coronavirus decimates a few hundred around the world, some of our readers notice … Are we doing too much on this virus? The observation is correct: each year, 9,000 to 15,000 deaths are attributed to influenza in France, hundreds of thousands worldwide.
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We know the flu
But “flu viruses – there are many – we know them very well. There, we have a new virus, on which we learned things in a few weeks, but very little. It doesn’t look very virulent, but it seems very contagious. In China, it has grown enormously, “explains Sylvie Behillil, in charge of respiratory infection viruses at the Pasteur Institute. And the health system is outdated, to the point of having had to build two hospitals in two weeks. “If we take so many precautions, it’s not to get there,” says Sylvie Behillil. “There is an influenza epidemic in France, no need to add the circulation of another virus that we know so little about. “
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Many unknowns
Where does the virus come from? What mortality rate? Contagion? These data are to be taken with tweezers: they are not complete until the epidemic is over. Worse: they can evolve if the virus mutates. What we know today is calculated from known cases. But nothing reassuring: the lethality, estimated at almost 3%, is lower than that of Sras (about 10%). But much higher than the number of deaths caused by a simple flu. This virus also appears to be very contagious – at least more than the flu. The incubation period, long estimated at 14 days, would only be at least 5 days. But it is not settled. And it is still unknown whether the patient is contagious or not during this period.
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He mutates … but how?
We therefore know little about the 2019-nCoV. And the little that we know can be scary: it’s an RNA virus (for ribonucleic acid), so it mutates easily. This is its normal course, and that’s how it became transmissible to humans. “He adapts to his environment. And when it mutates, the virus can become more or less virulent, more or less contagious. But we absolutely cannot foresee a mutation, nor its consequences, “adds Sylvie Behillil, according to whom” the best thing to do is to limit the spread “. The flu virus also mutates, but we know all the strains and combinations.
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No vaccine
Because for the flu, there is a vaccine. This generally helps to escape from the disease or to avoid spreading it. With the 2019-nCoV, no vaccine or suitable antiviral treatment: if a vaccine is born, it will not be before 20 months, according to the Pasteur Institute.
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Uncertain number of cases
China seems to play on transparency: every day, it communicates the number of deaths and new cases, which soar. But these figures are perhaps very underestimated: “In China, they cannot diagnose everyone. The test is simple, but it doesn’t take two minutes: you need a sample, transport, laboratory analysis… ”. Several studies by international researchers estimate the number of real cases in China at over one hundred thousand.
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Towards a long epidemic?
Finally, the flu disappears at the end of winter. Not 2019-nCoV: “The best scenario would be for it to continue in the spring, summer, and then fall off,” said David Fisman, professor at the University of Toronto (Canada). “It will take weeks, probably months, and nobody knows how it will evolve,” he details. The WHO, which has declared the international emergency (as for the Zika and Ebola viruses), anticipates a long epidemic and fears a spread of the outbreaks, still confined to mainland China.
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