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why the incidence rate has suddenly increased in the Rhône

Curfew rue de la République in Lyon / (Photo by JEFF PACHOUD / AFP)

The incidence rate has increased in the Rhône, according to the latest consolidated data. It is 221. Lyon and the Rhône should not escape the advanced curfew at 6 pm in the next few days. This increase is also explained by … public holidays. Explanations.

Policymakers have their eyes on it. On the famous incidence rate, which determines quite precisely the degree of circulation of the virus at an instant t in a territory. It determines the number of positive people during the last 7 days per 100,000 inhabitants.

In the Rhône, while it was 189 Sunday evening (according to data stabilized on January 7), it is now 221. A fairly clear increase which is explained by the date of stabilized data from Public Health France. January 8. However, as the incidence rate is calculated over the last 7 days, over a sliding week, the inclusion in the calculations of the incidence rate of the January 8 tests “eliminate” the calculations of the January 1 tests. However, on January 1, a public holiday, there were very few tests. Logical that this incidence rate increases (quite strongly). We will have to see if the trend is confirmed over the next few days, the week is really decisive.

The curfew quickly advanced to 6 p.m. in Lyon?

In the region, two departments had already passed, Saturday and Sunday, above 200 (incidence rate). The Allier and the Drôme. Consequently, these two departments saw their curfew advanced at 6 p.m. (read here).

Now, the incidence rate is over 200 in 11 of the 12 departments in the region (except Cantal). The Rhône, the Loire, the Ain, the Isère, the Savoie, the Haute-Savoie, the Ardèche, the Haute-Loire, the Puy-de-Dôme could therefore soon undergo the same “fate” as Allier and Drôme and see the advanced curfew at 6 p.m. It is just a matter of hours or days.

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