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Bulgarian Prime Minister Boyko Borissov and the presidents of Russia, Turkey and Serbia (from left to right) attend a ceremony marking the official launch of the Turkish Stream gas pipeline in January 2020. PHOTO: PHOTO: Reuters
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However, our contract with Gazprom expires at the end of the year, and there are no indications of new negotiations yet.
Kiril Petkov’s fears of a gas crisis in Bulgaria over tensions between Moscow and NATO are unrealistic. This is how experts from the sector reacted after the Bulgarian Prime Minister warned on Friday night that if the conflict gets out of control, we may have risks with gas supplies – not only Bulgaria, but the whole of Europe.
Why would Bulgaria find it difficult to be deliberately cut off from Russian supplies? Because our country holds the tap to Serbia, Northern Macedonia and Greece and indirectly to two other countries – Hungary and Bosnia.
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Even if Bulgaria is recognized as a hostile country to Gazprom as a member of NATO, stopping gas for our country would compromise supplies to at least five other countries, some of which are friendly to Russia.
From January 1, 2020, Russian gas
not in us
through Ukraine and
Romania, a
through Turkey
Prior to that date, more than 17 billion cubic meters were transited through Bulgaria to the three countries – Turkey, Northern Macedonia and Greece – and Istanbul’s gas depended on supplies through Bulgaria.
One week later, on January 8, 2020, three presidents in Istanbul – Vladimir Putin, Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Serbia’s Alexander Vucic and Bulgaria’s Prime Minister Boyko Borissov – launched Turkish Stream. At the time, Putin was adamant that the Trans-Black Sea gas pipeline would ensure Europe’s energy independence. The Russian president has long talked about Turkish-Russian friendship, regardless of the situation in the world. In Istanbul, Borissov assured the heads of state of Russia, Turkey and Serbia that “the more gas reaches Bulgaria, the more it will act as a strategic gas distribution center in the Balkans.” Exactly one year later, on January 1, 2021, the pipeline reached Serbia.
With the launch of Turkish Stream, which Gazprom built quickly after the shutdown of South Stream, the delivery point in Bulgaria has moved to Strandzha-Malkochlar. And it is precisely this role of Bulgaria as a gas distribution center that now guarantees it peace of mind over tensions between Moscow and NATO.
The capacity of the entrance to the Bulgarian transit system is 53-54 million cubic meters per day, or 16 billion per year. Currently, 35-40 million cubic meters are transported daily from Turkey, including the gas of the Swiss MET, Valentino Zlatev’s Energiko Trading and Litasco, which supplies Lukoil’s natural gas. The capacity of Bulgaria’s outlet to Serbia is 38 million cubic meters, now 20-21 million are transported.
Gas also goes from Serbia to Hungary and Bosnia. The possibilities for Greece are 3.5 billion per year, or 11 million per day, and for Northern Macedonia – 800 million cubic meters. There is another detail that gas observers emphasize. And he is that whatever the political cold between Bulgaria and Russia, our country and Bulgartransgaz
decades are
were correct
partner of
Gazprom
and at no point did they create problems in transporting gas before to Turkey, Greece and northern Macedonia, and now to Serbia, northern Macedonia and Greece. While Gazprom twice presented surprises to Bulgaria – from January 6 to 21, 2009 with a total shutdown of gas and instability in supplies for several days in February 2011.
And while the government fears supply crises, which other experts say is theoretically possible, but so far there are no such indications, there is something else unknown about future Russian gas supplies to Bulgaria.
The contract with Gazprom Export expires at the end of this year. But still
there is no
that they are cooking
negotiate for
long-term
delivery
Bulgargaz is involved in scandals that have been going on for more than a month, under the Azeri gas contract and its delivery point.
At present, the country receives about 300 million cubic meters of gas from Azerbaijan instead of 1 billion cubic meters, as agreed. The reason, according to Bulgargaz, is that the delivery point is Komotini, the entrance to the still unbuilt gas connection with Greece. And the supply of gas from Azerbaijan through the Greek gas transmission network from Nea Mesemvria is an expression of good will.
According to opponents of the gas company, including Energy Minister Alexander Nikolov, not everything has been done to secure the full volume of the contract. The gas sector is worried that there are no indications of prepared negotiations with Gazprom Export. Doubts are also being expressed about whether other companies are preparing to enter as Russian gas suppliers.
It is expected that there will be tenders for capacity in the middle of the year and the mix of Bulgargaz should be clear – whether it will take from the liquefied gas terminal at Revitus, what will be the quantities of Azerbaijani, how many Russian will it take to make prices for regulated market, and hence acceptable to business.
Sources close to Bulgargaz comment that this is a matter of political negotiations, because the principal of the gas company is BEH, and the Minister of Energy is his.
The rattling of weapons has raised the price of blue fuel
The rattling of weapons has raised the price of gas on the Dutch stock exchange TTF. On January 24, at 5 pm, February futures reached 91.005 euros per megawatt-hour, after falling throughout the past week.
Price levels between January 17th and 21st fell to 75 euros per megawatt-hour on Wednesday and Thursday, reaching 79.95 euros at the end of trading on Friday.
On Monday, they rushed up amid geopolitical tensions between Russia and NATO.
Still, they remain half below the record of 180 euros per megawatt-hour reported on December 21 last year, but passed the peak of 88.76 euros three weeks ago.
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