Why is the number of infections in Africa so low?

When South Africa’s chief epidemiologist, Professor Salim Abdool Karim has arrived at his ninth slide, he pauses. That way, everyone can take in the curious difference between the north and south of the world during the Covid-19 outbreak. In orange the steep curve of the United Kingdom, now with nearly 90,000 infections and more than 11,000 deaths since the 100th infection. And below that her former colony of South Africa, in blue, which has only 2.506 infections 25 days after the 100th infection. A curve almost as flat as Table Mountain.

The number of deaths in South Africa, which has more than 50 million inhabitants: 34.

“This is a unique journey in the world,” said Karim at the beginning of this week, during a live press conference. “We are now seeing a decrease in the number of cases. We have reached the plateau. ”

Countries that normally come to the aid of major epidemics are now busy saving themselves

Those optimistic figures are of interest to the entire continent. South Africa is the country most connected to the hot spots of Covid-19, Europe, Asia and the United States and therefore the hardest hit. Other countries in Africa are also lagging far behind the global trend of exponential contagions, due in part to the relatively low number of visiting Europeans in those countries.

Also read: “Even before Corona, many African countries were already alert to viruses.”

Karim himself answers the obvious questions raised by the low number of infections in South Africa. This is not Karim’s first epidemic. He was also responsible for curbing the HIV epidemic, which has infected nearly 10 percent of South Africans.

“Maybe we miss cases because we don’t test enough?” He doesn’t think so. Nearly 100,000 South Africans have now been tested. Not only in expensive private clinics. But also in the poorest neighborhoods, in the townships, with mobile clinics. While more are being tested, the number of new infections remains below 100 per day.

Infections from Europe

Most infections in South Africa were caused by travelers from Europe. The number of infections that are communicated within communities is and remains low. Also, there are no increased numbers of patients with respiratory problems entering South Africa’s hospitals.

Conclusion: the strict national lockdown announced in South Africa on March 26 works. At least as far as containing the virus is concerned.

In the townships, meanwhile, there is growing unrest about the ailments that the strict approach entails: unemployment, food shortages, unrest. On Tuesday, shops were looted in various places in South Africa by township residents, who no longer have anything to eat due to the closure. In the Cape districts of Mitchells Plain and Manenberg, notorious for gangs, shops were emptied.

Also read: There is not even soap and water in the South African townships

President Cyril Ramaphosa last week announced a two-week extension of the measures, in addition to 21 days. The airports remain locked, the borders, schools and non-essential shops and businesses remain closed. “We’re finally being led again,” was a common social media sigh after Ramaphosa explained his reasons for extending the lockdown in a speech.

Not higher than a thousand cases

The South African scenario is not an isolated case. Covid-19 has now been detected in nearly 60 percent of the 47 African countries affiliated with the World Health Organization (WHO). In none of those countries, except in South Africa, the number of infections exceeds one thousand. According to WHO, experience with other epidemics such as the Ebola outbreak has helped many countries act quickly. In Tanzania, for example, 2,400 nurses were mobilized for rapid intervention teams, should Ebola reach that country from the east of Congo.

“These nurses are now essential in the response to Covid-19,” WHO said on its website. Countries such as Uganda and Rwanda closed their borders when the number of infections in those countries was still one to count.

For the south of the world, Covid-19 is not the deadliest disease since the Spanish flu.

According to WHO figures, tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people every year, malaria more than 400,000, especially in Africa. The question is whether the radical approach of the rich countries in the West – national lockdowns – is suitable for the conditions of poorer countries. “The disease models used have an explicit preference for the characteristics of rich countries, be it age or the ability of families to isolate themselves,” write two researchers from the Center for Global Development. “We are still waiting for models that take into account the young population of South Asia and Africa and the extremely high population density in megacities.”

I had screaming soldiers at my door this morning because I had no license

Apinda Malanda, owner of a mobile pizzeria

That sound can also be heard in the townships. “This virus is very dangerous, but having something on the table is really more important,” said Apinda Malanda, who until recently ran a mobile pizzeria in townhsip Khayelitsha. “It is now chaos. Everything is locked, but our food is not taken care of. This morning I had police officers and soldiers screaming at my door because I didn’t have a permit. ” The government has pledged to issue permits to traders in the informal market to avoid further social unrest.

Shrinking economy

A study by the African Union shows that the economy of the entire continent will shrink by 0.8 percent, while the Covid-19 outbreak predicted 3.4 percent growth. “Nearly 20 million jobs in the formal and informal sector will be lost to this situation.” According to the same study, 15 percent of foreign investment is likely to evaporate. Thirteen African countries are now on the drip of emergency funds from the International Monetary Fund and from other institutions.

The fear is that the drastic measures that are now being taken will not prove enough to protect Africa against the scenario that is now taking place in the north of the world. This disaster is still manageable for South Africa, especially in private hospitals. The country has 4,000 respirators in private clinics, 2,000 in state hospitals. With the help of arms companies like Denel, South Africa hopes to have developed ten thousand respirators by June.

But many other African countries do not have that luxury. The Central African Republic has three respirators, just like Liberia. South Sudan: four. The number of beds in intensive care is also low. South Africa has three thousand, Somalia only fifteen.

Countries that normally come to the rescue in major epidemics, such as the United States during the Ebola outbreak in Liberia, are now busy saving themselves.

Also read: Epidemics are never far away in Africa

In recent weeks, there has been much speculation about whether Africa can emerge from the blackest scenario. Does the warm weather help? Or the medicines for other lung diseases, such as tuberculosis, that many Africans take? According to the experts, this wishful thinking is dangerous. South Africa’s chief adviser, Abdool Karim, warns that despite relatively low levels of contamination now, he does not believe South Africa will escape the peat fire. “Unless we have a special talisman to protect us.” His advice: keep the country locked.

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