The Rising Tide of Authoritarianism in Africa: A Challenge to Enduring Growth
Recent years have witnessed a concerning decline in participation, rights, and civic space across Africa, raising alarms about the continent’s democratic trajectory. Disputed polls in Tunisia and Mozambique serve as stark reminders of the fragility of democratic institutions (MIF,2024). This trend, if unchecked, risks ushering in an era of “developmental authoritarianism” – a model previously observed in parts of Asia where economic growth was prioritized at the expense of accountability (Mabasa & Mqolomba, 2016). While the applicability of this model across Africa’s diverse political landscapes is debated, the potential consequences demand serious consideration.
The core issue isn’t simply what type of regime a nation has, but how it governs. The Ibrahim Index of African Governance consistently demonstrates that countries prioritizing openness, participation, and the rule of law consistently achieve superior development outcomes compared to those reliant on unchecked executive power. Historical examples underscore this point. Ethiopia’s period of rapid growth was ultimately followed by instability, and Zimbabwe’s initial economic gains under state-led control ultimately collapsed into crisis (Chipanda, 2025; Cross, 2013). These cases illustrate a critical truth: authoritarian shortcuts may offer short-term benefits, but frequently lead to long-term costs including political instability, elite capture of resources, and stifled innovation.
The potential outcome of these trends is a continent characterized by stronger states, but weaker citizens.However, despite the concerning shifts, democracy isn’t necessarily in irreversible decline. according to a 2024 Afrobarometer survey,a significant majority of Africans – 66% – still prefer democracy over any othre form of government. Overwhelming majorities also reject one-man rule (80%), one-party rule (78%), and military rule (66%).
This enduring preference for democracy highlights a crucial opportunity. To regain public trust, democratic systems must demonstrably deliver on more than just civil liberties. They must also address critical needs related to security, economic inclusion, and effective governance. Simultaneously, the international community has a responsibility to resist justifying repression in the name of stability and to proactively challenge democratic backsliding before it escalates into military intervention or coups.
Ultimately, the question facing Africa is whether citizens will be willing to trade their democratic freedoms for perceived developmental gains – and for how long. The continent deserves leadership that can provide both stability and freedom, proving that democracy can benefit all citizens, not just a select few. As history cautions, authoritarianism is rarely a sustainable solution (Chipanda, 2025; Cross, 2013).
Africa now has a unique opportunity to forge a different path – one where governance reform, strong institutions, and active citizen participation underpin sustainable development, and where democracy is defined on African terms.
Sources:
* Chipanda, H. (2025).AFI-Geographic-Futures-Ethiopia.pdf.
* cross, J. (2013). zimbabwe’s economy: Collapse and recovery.Politicsweb. https://www.politicsweb.co.za/documents/zimbabwes-economy-collapse-and-recovery
* Ibrahim,M. F. (2024). 2024 Elections Review.Mo Ibrahim Foundation. https://mo.ibrahim.foundation/sites/default/files/2024-12/2024-elections-review.pdf
* Mabasa, N., & Mqolomba, S. (2016). Developmental authoritarianism in Africa: A critical assessment. Strategic Review for Southern Africa, 38(1), 5-24. https://upjournals.up.ac.za/index.php/strategic_review/article/view/294
* Afrobarometer. (2024).Flagship Report. https://www.afrobarometer.org/feature/flagship-report/
