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Which regions come out of the crisis best

Bleak prospects?

The coronavirus is also casting its shadow on economic growth.


(Photo: Smetek)


The letter V shows the optimists in the corona crisis. V is for Victory. And at the same time, the V describes the best possible economic development in the pandemic: The sharp economic slump in the second quarter of 2020 will be followed by an equally rapid recovery from 2021 at the latest.

At the latest when a vaccine against the virus has been found, the failed growth from the time of the lockdown will be offset by correspondingly higher growth rates in the coming years – according to the vision of the optimists.

By the end of the decade at the latest, the German economy is expected to achieve the same gross domestic product (GDP), according to the confident forecasts, that it would have achieved even with continuous growth without the corona break. A nice, calming idea. But also a realistic one?

The experts from the economic research institute Prognos have calculated a growth forecast exclusively for Handelsblatt that goes beyond the usual two to three years. Prognos looks at the growth prospects up to 2030 and breaks this forecast down to the level of the districts and urban districts. A detailed economic map of the Federal Republic in the years after Corona will be created.

Three things stand out on this map:

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