When will the war in Ukraine end?
During the G7 summit, President Volodymyr Zelensky announced Ukraine’s expectations complete a full-scale war with the Russian Federation by the end of the year. To this end, the head of state called on European leaders to provide air defense systems, strengthen sanctions against Russia and security guarantees.
Earlier, the Office of the President spoke about two conditions for the end of the war. The minimum program is the withdrawal of Russian troops to positions until February 24, after which the start of negotiations.
The maximum task will be restoration of the territorial integrity of Ukraine within internationally recognized borders, the loss and transformation of the Russian Federation.
According to Mikhail Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Presidential Office, the war will continue for as long as Ukraine needs to prove that Russia must withdraw from the occupied territories.
Tipping point in August
Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, predicts that in August the world will see the first victories of Ukraine at the front, and at the end of the year, active hostilities “will decrease sufficiently.” However, this will not yet be the end of the war.
The head of the GUR noted that he would consider Ukraine’s entry to its borders in 1991 as the end of the war, and this could happen as early as 2023.
How do they see the end of the conflict in NATO
The North Atlantic Alliance believes that Russia’s war against Ukraine can be long-term and, most likely, ends with negotiations.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that the Alliance must be ready “for a long journey.” At the same time, NATO allies are able to continue to provide assistance to Kyiv as much as necessary to strengthen the position of Ukraine.
At the NATO summit called the best way to end the war – help Ukraine win it in the military sense.
Three scenarios from the USA
US National Intelligence says the situation is “pretty bleak” because Putin hasn’t given up on his goal of taking over most of Ukraine.
The head of the department, Avril Haynes, voiced the most likely scenario – the achievement by the aggressor troops of only gradual successes on Ukrainian territory. Other options for the development of events: a major breakthrough of the Russian troops or the successful actions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in stabilizing the front line.
Kyiv’s expectations to end the war before the end of this year are considered unrealistic in the United States, but will continue to help Ukraine strengthen its defenses.
Pentagon Speaker John Kirby noted that Washington would like the end of the war as soon as possible, but the head of the Kremlin does not show readiness for negotiations and intends to continue attacks.
The risk of a protracted war
European leaders have repeatedly spoken about the risk of going into a protracted war. Thus, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz expressed the opinion that the conflict will not end until Putin admits his “colossal mistake”. Therefore, it is important for the West to continue sanctions, military and financial assistance to Ukraine for as long as necessary.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also believes that it is necessary to prepare for a protracted conflict, because. Russia went to war not attrition. Johnson presented to Western partners support strategyso that Ukraine can endure and complete hostilities on its own terms
It was the former head of the North Atlantic Alliance, Anders Fogh Rasmussen, who warned about the danger of a long conflict. According to him, the Russians are “masters” of protracted wars, as evidenced by their actions in the Donbas since 2014, as well as in South Ossetia and Transnistria.
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, the ex-NATO Secretary General explained that the smoldering conflict is beneficial to the head of the Kremlin. Putin believes that a prolonged war will impede Ukraine’s progress in rapprochement with the European Union, NATO and make it difficult to restore the country.
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