The Germans have had some of the most balanced elections in history and certainly the closest since 2005, when the Christian Democrats defeated the Social Democrats by only one percent. This year, the difference is similarly small, according to estimates, the SPD will win over the CDU / CSU. We offer an immediate reflection of the first estimates and preliminary results. An overview of what we know so far and what follows from the facts so far.
1. The CDU was the worst in history
Although Angela Merkel is mostly evaluated after sixteen years in the office of chancellor Germans positively, the results of its Christian Democrats (CDU / CSU) did not have much effect. Gaining about twenty-five percent of the vote is a historic failure. Since 1953, the party has never been below thirty percent, neither in the West German era nor since its unification in 1991.
Chancellor-designate Armin Laschet has admitted that he is dissatisfied, although at least the weak patch for Christian Democrats may be the fact that Social Democracy cannot form a left-wing coalition with the Greens and Die Linke.
“Laschet scored a result that is a historic disaster for the CDU,” Julian Reichelt, a political commentator for Germany’s most widely read daily, commented on the results.
2. Social democracy has risen from the dead, but not much
After a series of defeats that began in 2002, support for the Social Democrats (SPD) in Germany declined. Although they did not become an insignificant party like the Socialists in France, their constituency crumbled as the party lost traditional workers’ votes in industrial areas such as the Ruhr. It also seemed that remaining in a grand coalition with the CDU as a weaker partner was damaging the party.
This year’s result (probably a close win) is a certain satisfaction, as it turned out that the SPD remained an important player. In essence, it repulsed the onslaught of the Greens, who aspired to become Germany’s main left-wing party.
But forming a government will require compromises, and if the SPD does not agree with the Liberal Party of Free Democrats (FDP), it may still end up in opposition. It is not at all clear who will become Chancellor at this time.
3. The Greens have not rewritten history
At one point this year, the Greens were in the polls and it looked like a big breakthrough. For the first time, they would win elections in a member state of the European Union, right in the most populous one.
However, this did not happen, they received about fifteen percent of the vote, which is a great disappointment. Why so little? Perhaps some Germans were frightened by the big changes or were discouraged by media-disputed inconsistencies in the official biography of party leader Annalena Baerbock. “We wanted more. We didn’t make it, partly because of the mistakes at the beginning of the campaign. The mistakes I made,” Baerbock said critically.
But it can comfort the Greens that they succeeded in the elections to the Landtag in Berlin and are vying for the first place with the Social Democrats.
4. The far right remained on the edge
In the last elections in 2017, migration was a big topic and the question of whether Angela Merkel’s government managed it or not. For the first time, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party came to the Bundestag, defending itself against refugees and claiming that Germany was becoming Islamized by the arrival of hundreds of thousands of Muslims.
Some commentators expected it to become a strong party as the issue of migration and Islam resonated more and more in Germany. But they were wrong: the AfD weakened and got about eleven percent of the vote, less than four years ago. Neither migration nor Islam were the main topics of the elections, and the far-right party will have no influence on the formation of the government.
5. Liberals are important again
The Liberal Free Democratic Party (FDP) was an important part of the governing coalitions in the 1980s and 1990s and in Angela Merkel’s second government from 2009 to 2013. After that, however, it did not reach the Bundestag and only barely crossed the 5% mark in the last election.
For her, however, Sunday’s vote means a return to significance. The FDP won about twelve percent of the vote and can choose to go into coalition with the Social Democrats or the Christian Democrats.
Party leader Christan Lindner has indicated that the CDU / CSU is closer to him. In a first response to the election estimates, he said his party favored a so-called Jamaican coalition with the CDU / CSU and the Greens. He wants to discuss this with the Greens in advance and has indicated that he would like to win the chair of the Minister of Finance.
