What happens on January 31 and what happens next?

More than three years have passed since the referendum in summer 2016. Brexit has been a reality since midnight Friday in Central European Time: Great Britain is no longer a member of the EU. How did this work in detail – and what follows afterwards?

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The latest developments

• British Prime Minister Boris Johnson wants Brexit to be an “incredible success”. Johnson said this on Friday evening (Jan. 31) in a speech to the nation posted on the Internet shortly before his country left the European Union at midnight Central European Time. According to Johnson, Brexit offers the opportunity to “unleash Britain’s full potential”. Nevertheless, Johnson admitted that the way there could be bumpy. “It is a moment of real national renewal and change,” said the prime minister. His task now is to “bring this country together again”.
• Johnson had outlined his vision of the future of Britain’s future relationship with the EU a few hours earlier at a special cabinet meeting in Sunderland in northern England. As a government spokesman said on Friday Johnson wants to negotiate a free trade agreement along the lines of Canada with the EU, Talks about free trade agreements should also be started immediately with other countries around the world. However, there is great skepticism on the European side as to whether an agreement can be reached by the end of the year.
• A few hours before Brexit, European Union employees removed the British flags from important EU buildings. The flag of the United Kingdom was removed on Friday (31 January) from the EU Council building in Brussels and in front of the seats of the EU Parliament in Brussels and Strasbourg. The British mission to the EU in turn caught up with the EU flag. Only the British Union Jack hung there on Friday. As of Saturday (February 1st), the previous representation of London only describes itself as a British mission in Brussels. On the other hand, the European flag was hoisted at the headquarters of the Scottish government in Brussels on Friday.
• The head of the British Brexit Party, Nigel Farage, celebrates his country’s exit from the EU with hundreds of supporters in front of the British Parliament. Many waved Union Jack flags or England flags, some wore stickers saying “Happy Brexit Day!” Alcohol was not allowed in the public square, but many guests were still drunk. The mood was sometimes aggressive. EU flags were set on fire or trampled on.
• Brexit supporters and supporters gathered in front of the British Parliament in London a few hours before the EU exit at midnight. Parliament Square has been filled with people all day. However, the two camps were irreconcilable. As the German news agency dpa reports, a protest train of Brexit opponents was received by supporters of the exit with wild insults.
• In Northern Ireland, opponents of Brexit demonstrated at several locations on Friday (January 31). In front of the seat of the Northern Ireland regional parliament in Belfast, supporters of the Sinn Fein party called for a referendum on Irish reunification. There were also a few smaller Sinn Fein rallies on the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. On Friday evening, however, Brexit supporters wanted to demonstrate in front of the regional parliament in Belfast.
• According to police on Friday (31.1), a Brexit panic broke out among truck drivers heading for England. There is currently a lot of traffic around the port in Zeebrugge, Belgium, and there are traffic jams on the roads to the ferry docks to the UK. “The drivers obviously want to embark today instead of tomorrow because the Brexit is officially today,” police spokeswoman Sarah Frederickx told the Belga news agency. “This is pure panic, because nothing changes for truck traffic.” The police called for the area around Zeebrugge to be avoided.
• Austrian Post honored Brexit with a pragmatic and humorous solution. A special stamp with the originally intended exit date March 29, 2019 had already been printed – and has now been updated using the overprint process. Cross out the old date, print the new one underneath – the new special stamp is ready. The label was launched 140,000 times and has been available in three branches in Austria since Friday (January 31). Its face value is EUR 1.80 – enough to send a standard letter weighing up to 20 grams from Austria to non-European countries.

In principle, that’s the way it is. On Friday (January 31st) at exactly midnight CET (11 p.m. in London) Great Britain’s EU membership expired. The divorce is actually completed and a return to the Union would only be possible through an application to join. However, a transition phase of eleven months is just beginning. This should be used to find out about the Details of the future relationship to agree. This means that the British will remain in the internal market and customs union during this period. The free movement of persons between the two sides continues to apply. The decisive moment is likely to come on January 1, 2021, when the transition period ends. According to the withdrawal contract, this period can be extended. Prime Minister only has Boris Johnson so far this has been expressly excluded.

For ordinary British people, practically nothing is noticeable during the transition period. It will hardly be noticeable to him that he is no longer an EU citizen. As before, traveling to the European continent does not require more than your own passport – Great Britain was never a Schengen member. Even companies don’t have to change. The main difference will initially only be felt at the institutional level: the process under Article 50 of the EU Constitution has been completed. The UK will have to comply with all EU rules and guidelines by the end of 2020, but British government officials will no longer be at the negotiating table in Brussels when the EU takes new decisions. The 73 British MEPs in the EU Parliament travel home. The last British EU commissioner said goodbye to Brussels. The Union Jack, which has been waving in the wind on a flagpole at the EU parliament building, is being brought to an EU-owned museum without further ceremony.

In the past few days it has become clear that the Big Ben bells are definitely leaving due to the renovation work on the bell tower in Westminster do not usher in become. Instead, a countdown is projected onto the facade of the government headquarters on Downing Street. No EU flag is symbolically pulled down in London. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will address the nation in a television address. He will probably try not to widen the gaps between EU opponents and supporters. At the same time, a commemorative coin with a face value of 50 pence will be put into circulation. The words “Peace, Prosperity and Friendship with All Nations” are stamped on it. She already has for controversy taken care of. On the square in front of the parliament building, the Brexit party leader Nigel Farage and his colleagues have their own party with the invitation to appear in fancy disguise.

Already in a few weeks new negotiations start between Brussels and London. Negotiator on the EU side is Michel Barnier, who is now well known from the exit negotiations. It is already known that agreement should first be reached on fishing rights and a possible extension of the transition period by early July. Johnson has urged Brussels to negotiate quickly, while the EU warns that the deadline for 2020 will be barely enough for a comprehensive deal. It is therefore highly likely that in the next eleven months there will be only one kind of minimum agreement, for example in the areas of goods trading, fisheries and security policy. Everything else would be postponed to later. If negotiations are blocked, however, a no-deal scenario threatens again at the beginning of 2021. That would not be as bad as the long-feared chaotic Brexit. The exit contract already contains some important regulations – for example the agreement for an open border between the British Northern Ireland and the EU member Ireland.

On the UK side, the primary goal is to reach an agreement that would allow free trade in goods without customs and controls between the EU and the UK. However, the EU should only be prepared to do so if London agrees not to undermine EU standards and regulations in the future. In Brussels there are fears that the UK could otherwise secure one-sided competitive advantages. Another obstacle is Brussels’ refusal to allow free trade in services. This question also affects the financial center London, which is interested in the continued market access in Europe. There have already been indications from Brussels that such market access will only be granted if London meets the EU in terms of fishing rights.

This question is still hotly debated. In the short term, however, there should hardly be any major swings in the financial and currency markets, because Brexit has long been anticipated there. The fact that the continuing uncertainty of the past three years is finally a thing of the past should have a positive impact on the economy. On the other hand, the trade contract negotiations are again threatening new uncertainty.

Whatever the consequences of leaving the EU, both sides will feel it – but Britain will certainly be stronger than the remaining 27 EU member states. But the EU as a whole is weakened economically and politically by Brexit because it loses the second largest economy and one of the largest contributors as a member. The United Kingdom, together with France, is also the strongest military and nuclear power in Europe. In the EU, the UK’s experience to date with Brexit has had a rather deterrent effect on potential further jump candidates. On the other hand, the UK’s exit has led to the suppression of other problems in the EU. In a broader context, the question will arise how the EU will position itself in the international system vis-à-vis Russia and an increasingly aggressive China and an increasingly isolationist America.