It is a decisive moment in Congress. The end of the road in the controversial political judgment President Donald Trump is close and Republicans will show the country how strong their alliance really is to support the president.
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There have been 35 long hours of arguments and 16 hours of questions in the Senate. Strenuous political days and especially an internal struggle in the Republican ranks to support Trump in the face of charges of abuse of power and obstruction of Congress.
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This Friday the Senate has the opportunity to end the process. Around 01:00 pm the senators will hold a crucial vote to determine if they need to call more witnesses and collect more documents.
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The Democrats have pressed from the first day for this step and the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, did not get enough support among lawmakers at the start of the trial to completely block the proposal and left the vote for this stage .
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The Democratic leadership has special interest in the testimony of former national security advisor John Bolton and the White House interim cabinet chief, Mick Mulvaney.
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Although it is certain that Trump will be acquitted when the trial is over, the result of this vote will be decisive in anticipating what is coming now and how long it will last.
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A decision that will have repercussions that go far beyond Washington, considering that the presidential primaries begin on Monday and four of the Democratic candidates have had to dedicate valuable time of their campaigns to the political trial: Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Bernie Sanders and Michael Bennet
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Here we present the possible scenarios at the end of the trial against Trump, starting with the vote of the Senate to admit or reject more witnesses and documents.
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● Rejection: McConnell needs a majority of 51 votes to approve the blockade. In other words, you can only lose the support of 2 of the Republican senators on your bench. Maine Senator Susan Collins has already stated that she is open to hearing more witnesses.
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Another possible vote on this line is from Massachusetts Senator Mitt Romney. Lisa Murkowski the Alaska senator who is characterized by a moderate and independent stance has not revealed her vote.
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If McConnell achieves a victory and reaches 51 votes, he will probably try to proceed immediately to vote on the two articles of political judgment.
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It is not clear yet if the Democrats will be able to present various amendments that would delay Trump’s acquittal and force the Republicans to go “on the record” in difficult and controversial votes, especially for those facing a hard-fought re-election next November.
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That was precisely what happened when the political trial began in the Senate, where the Democratic leadership headed by New York Senator Chuck Schumer imposed 11 amendments and engaged in a whole day of debate and votes.
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“We are analyzing all our parliamentary options to try to force as many votes as possible to put Republicans on record,” Connecticut Democratic Senator Chris Murphy said this week.
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This scenario could put in a complicated situation not only senators. This week, Maryland Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said he planned to file a motion that required Supreme Court President John Roberts to cite documents and witnesses, if he determines they are relevant to articles of political trial.
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● Draw: If McConnell doesn’t get the support of Collins, Romney and Murkowski to block more witnesses and documents, then Republicans and Democrats would be in a virtual 50-50 vote tie. In this case, the one who breaks the tie is the one who presides over the political trial, that is, Roberts, but it is really unknown what his vote would be.
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● Approval: In an unlikely scenario, Democrats get four Republican votes and approve to call more witnesses and include new documents. In this case the trial could last for several more days.
This would be a catastrophe for the Republican leadership in the Senate, it would expose deep divisions in the party and probably unleash the fury of Trump, who would undoubtedly criticize McConnell’s inefficiency to keep the ranks together (as he has done on previous occasions) In addition to attacking Republican senators who voted in favor. It would be a great victory for the Democrats. This path would take much more time for the presidential campaigns of the Democrats who aspire to the White House.
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● A fourth scenario would be that Republicans decline to call more witnesses and accept new documents, But in the final vote on the articles, some Republicans take their support from Trump and join the Democrats, even if this does not change the end result of an acquittal. This would be a convenient way out for those who are not comfortable with absolving the president altogether, since it takes a majority of 67 votes to remove Trump. 51, 52, 53 votes or more will not make a difference in the final result, but they could have an impact in the eyes of voters in November.
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ORn trial that never ends
If the trial concludes this Friday or Saturday, it is clear that both the president of the House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, and Schumer, will not let it conclude in the eyes of public opinion.
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“He will not be acquitted. You cannot be acquitted if you do not have a trial. And you don’t have a trial if you don’t have witnesses and documentation, “Pelosi said this week.
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