“In the short term, financial dollars may be affected by market factors, such as arbitrations for the next local debt swap, which provide opportunities to opt for debt in pesos. We believe that this factor has been having a significant impact on the price of the financial dollar ”, the document indicates
It should be noted, once the exchange of bonds of national legislation begins, the Bonar 2020 and 2024 can be exchanged for Boncer 2026 and 2028.
The report adds: “The CCL above $ 120 pesos implies a fairly high real exchange rate, even higher than that observed during the 2011-2015 period if we adjust the Multilateral Real Exchange Rate by the value of the exchange gap.”
Based on the latter, Delphos considered that once the swap was completed, the upward pressure could diminish: “The arbitrage would even imply CCL prices above $ 130, fundamentally because the peso plus CER curve continued to grate despite the greater supply of bonds. But after the swap there could be a sharp drop in the CCL ”.
Leonardo Chialva, partner of the consulting firm, assured: “Today there is a CCL dollar that is worth the same as the convertible dollar, which speaks of a great fear of a currency shock. In the previous stocks, the CCL was half that of the convertible dollar, while today it is being priced as if everyone were going to run against the peso. “ By way of conclusion, Chialva summarized: “If you ask the brokerage firms if all the portfolios are being dollarized, the answer is no. These exchange rates rise due to the possibility of exchanging bonds in dollars for bonds in pesos and because the AY24 was in the middle of this pesification operation, which brings the CCL up. Once the exchange option for these bonds is closed, the situation should tend to normalize and the CCL dollar should fall ”.
By Delphos calculations, a convertible dollar should be at $ 150. Therefore, if the cash with liquid is decoupled and the variables normalize, the financial exchange rates would tend to be below that number when December arrives.
For his part, analyst Juan José Guma, from Capital Markets, referred to the possibilities of parallel dollars falling in the coming months: “If the Government advances in a more contractionary stance on the issue and showing a consistent plan that with greater balance from the fiscal side, the pressure on the exchange rate will gradually decompress ”.
Meanwhile, Juan Ignacio Paolicchi, from the EcoGo study, said: “One expected that after the agreement the cash settlement would fall sharply and the gap would compress, but it did not happen, given that there is an excessive monetization of: the deficit, the debt, the little purchase of dollars that at some point they made, the payment of Leliq interest, in addition to the fact that the rate that remunerates savings is below the devaluation rate. And the expectation of higher inflation for the coming months makes the expected real rate in pesos negative ”.
However, Paolicchi was moderately optimistic about the dynamics of the coming months: “Today the gap is higher than 70% and we see it falling to 55% – 60% by the end of the year. But for that, a certain fiscal consistency must appear and there must be signs that the interest rate is going to rise. “
On the other hand, Martín Eduardo Genero, from Clave Bursátil, explained why, according to his analysis, in the long run the financial exchange rate will continue on a path to rise: “If you look at the graphs, you see that the CCL is in an upward trend of long, medium and short term. In its structure, it has those three levels to correct and maintain the uptrend. You should make a very significant correction to break all three uptrends, a correction that you have never made since the dollar charts have been around. I don’t think that will happen. At most, you can lose the shortest part of the uptrend, or if something very significant happens, some correction in the medium term, but never in the long term. I can’t imagine Argentina making a driver so big (“convertibility” style) as to interrupt this process ”.
However, regarding the next few months, Genero considered: “In the medium term, if the Government advances in a more contractionary stance on the issue and shows a consistent plan that tends towards greater fiscal balance, that pressure on the exchange rate will go unzipping ”.